China on the Brink: The Myths and Realities of the World's Largest Market

Many experts hold that China is destined to become the world's dominant nation. Henderson is not among them. Instead, he insists, China currently stands ""on the brink of either unparalleled success... or of continued economic slowdown at best, collapse at worst. If the world isn't holding its breath, it should be."" Henderson develops his thesis in 10 chapters devoted to both technical economics (much of which the lay reader will find opaque) and exposition of political and social trends in China. Able to connect widely diverse phenomena such as the lending patterns of Chinese banks, currency control mechanisms, population projections and inefficiencies in China's business practices, Henderson grasps the complexity of the Chinese economy and brings forcefully to light the dilemmas facing China's leaders (e.g., how to reform unproductive state-owned enterprises without creating massive unemployment). The intricacy of China's economy, and the sheer volume and velocity of changes in its institutions, substantiate the book's contention that China is as likely to collapse as to emerge as a colossus. The same complexity, however, creates problems for readers who are neophytes in economic theory and Chinese history. Even so, no one who works through this volume will emerge without enriched insight into a nation of 1.2 billion whose fate, no matter what form it takes, will have tangible repercussions throughout the world. (June)