cover image The Predictable Surprise: 
The Unraveling of the 
U.S. Retirement System

The Predictable Surprise: The Unraveling of the U.S. Retirement System

Sylvester J. Schieber. Oxford Univ., $34.95 (464p) ISBN 978-0-19989-095-8

Blaming the derailment of Social Security reform in 1998 on Monica Lewinsky is the one note of levity in Schieber’s comprehensive, accessible analysis of the U.S. retirement system. Starting in the 1980s, Social Security trustees have been predicting deficits beginning a few years after baby boomers started to retire. The surprise is that deficits occurred in 2008 rather than 2016, and that they were larger than anticipated, due to the economic downturn and the worst decade for investment since the Depression. Though 401(k) plans seemed like a win-win for employers and employees during the bull market of the 1990s, they are proving less effective at providing retirement security than the large pension plans they’ve replaced. Schieber, former chairman of the Social Security Advisory Committee under Clinton and author of The Economic Implications of Aging Societies, cuts through the thicket of rhetoric and specialized knowledge to reveal the interplay of demographics, economic conditions, politics, and government regulations that have led to this current crisis. It’s hard not to share Schieber’s respect for the architects of Social Security and what they accomplished during difficult times, and his regret that the current political climate doesn’t encourage thoughtful discussion of needed reforms. This book is an invaluable resource for anyone who wishes to engage in that discussion. (Mar.)