The Million Death Quake: The Science of Predicting Earth’s Deadliest Natural Disaster

Could the earthquake that struck Haiti in 2010 have been predicted and 300,000 deaths prevented? Answering this pressing question with an informative but lackluster study, seismologist and geologist Musson says that prediction is still a challenge, but preventing deaths is within our reach. “Earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do” is one chapter title. As cities grow into megacities with cheaply constructed buildings, the odds of a million-death earthquake increase. Musson explains the geological forces that cause earthquakes and the three criteria for measuring the risk of damage: hazard, the chance that shaking will occur in a given place; exposure, how much can be damaged from an earthquake; and vulnerability, a measure of how strong or weak buildings are in the stricken area. As cities continue to grow, planners must consider how buildings are constructed. Musson offers suggestions on how a building’s shape (irregular rather than square), materials (lighter rather than heavier), and engineering (testing design ideas with “artificial” earthquakes) can make it less likely to cause deaths. Musson counsels that it is everyone’s responsibility to prepare to respond by, for instance, knowing to turn gas off and remain outdoors and away from buildings after an earthquake. Illus. (Oct.)