This book is an optimistic prediction from a journalist with more than a decade's experience reporting for the Far Eastern Economic Review
. Gilley argues, against Huntington's Clash of Civilizations
, that China's culture is not alien to democratic possibilities and that democratization will result not from popular overthrow of the existing Communist one-party state but through gradual reform from above. He anticipates a "revolution in values" through which the elite will becomes more public-spirited and less self-interested. Such faith in a moral elite is a prominent shared theme in both Eastern and Western political philosophies, but recent trends in Chinese political culture point toward deepening corruption and cynicism rather than such a moral revival. Gilley's arguments and evidence are thoughtful, provocative and well expressed, but his optimism seems forced. He sees hope in the contradiction between aspirations and opportunities generated by a market economy and the restrictions of an autocratic political system. He speaks of "Society" versus the "State." However, this neat dichotomy obscures the reality that most of China's business elite is successful because of close ties to state officials; the one-party bureaucratic state is part of what stabilizes the fortunes of those now on top. Multiparty political competition and true rule of law could be more dangerous to China's business elite than muddling through with the bureaucratic devil they already know. Though Gilley may overestimate the incentive for insiders to promote democratization, this book is an important contribution to the debate about China's future. (Apr.)
