Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future

Modis believes that the S-curves that mathematicians use to chart natural growth processes can also be used to predict social phenomena, including the life cycles of products, tourism trends and patterns of creativity. Utilizing S-curves and related techniques, he estimates the number of westward expeditions that failed prior to Columbus's voyage; suggests that Mozart may have exhausted his creative potential at the age of 35; and predicts that the discovery of a cure for AIDS is unlikely until a relatively dramatic decline in the yearly number of AIDS deaths occurs. In what sometimes seems like an intellectual parlor game, Modis, a management science consultant, applies his sweeping theories to criminal careers, energy consumption and human life expectancy. He also posits a 56-year cycle that purportedly rocks society with alternating waves of violence and achievement, prosperity and economic depression. Mathematics buffs will be the most likely readers of this offbeat excursion. (Sept.)