The Evolution of Progress: The End of Economic Growth and the Beginning of Human Transformation

Heavily annotated yet popularly written, this crystal-ball-gazing exercise combines sweeping economic predictions with heady speculations about science's potential to transform human life. Paepke, an antitrust lawyer in Phoenix, Ariz., argues that the forces of material progress--capital accumulation, market expansion --are largely spent, resulting in global stagnation of living standards. Among the early portents that we have reached the limits of economic growth, he discerns declining productivity, widespread affluence and workers' preference for family and leisure over fast-track careers. But Paepke foresees ``a new kind of progress'' as human life spans are lengthened, perhaps via direct genetic intervention. The Human Genome Project, which aims to map the human chromosomes, will hasten the discovery of the genetic basis of exceptional intellectual abilities, he predicts, adding that people early in the next century will possess vastly expanded mental powers. He also scans advances in neuroscience, artificial intelligence and the search for extraterrestrial life. (Jan.)