cover image The Polar Bear Strategy: Reflections on Risk in Modern Life

The Polar Bear Strategy: Reflections on Risk in Modern Life

John Ross. Basic Books, $23 (208pp) ISBN 978-0-7382-0117-7

A disjunction exists between experts and average Americans when it comes to risk: the experts try to rank risks rationally; the rest of us respond more intuitively and emotionally. A senior editor at Smithsonian, Ross has spent some time with the experts, and here he emerges as something of a convert, noting that we smoke but want to ban saccharine, panic about mad cow disease but don't eat right. That's not terribly new, but Ross presents the issues in an accessible, discursive way. He discusses the history of the study of risk (seeing in Pascal's Wager--the question of the consequences of believing or not believing in God--the beginning of modern probability theory) and notes how experts present risk information poorly. Some people, he adds, tolerate chosen high risks (e.g., downhill skiing) better than involuntary ones (e.g., agricultural pesticides). Certain people may have biological and psychological predispositions to risk, he explains in an intriguing chapter. Ultimately, Ross suggests that individuals must learn how to be good risk managers, to take responsibility. While he bemoans that the tort system is overwhelmed with frivolous lawsuits, he doesn't give enough attention to the issue of better regulation of those activities that present people with involuntary risk. Ross could have delved deeper, but he offers an accessible introduction to the science of risk and the many ways risk affects our lives. (May)