THE GREAT GAME OF POLITICS: Why We Elect Whom We Elect

In Stoken's view, American history is not a "patternless swirl of events," but rather follows a very simple pattern: a continual shifting back and forth between liberal and conservative philosophies in nine eras, or paradigms, whose agendas were set by the nine presidents Stoken considers to have been great (the inclusion of Washington and Lincoln won't surprise anyone; that of Coolidge might).For instance, the New Deal/Great Society era initiated by Franklin Roosevelt was followed by the current conservative era of the New Economy, whose agenda was set by Ronald Reagan. Beginning with the battle between Alexander Hamilton's Federalists and Thomas Jefferson's democrats, Stoken sees a political battle between those who want to limit government and provide wealth (conservatives) and those who want to use government in order to secure equality and individual rights (liberals). It's a creative approach that allows for framing American history in nice, neat windows—perhaps a bit too neat. These paradigms are based on the current Republican and Democratic parties, and as Stoken himself admits, they don't always fit the past so well. Serious students of the American presidency will find Stoken's thinking a bit simplistic as well as present-minded. And Stoken, an investor who has written several investment books (The Great Cycle ; Strategic Investment Timing ), writes more like a motivational speaker — he's prone to exclamation points — than a historian. But less-schooled readers may find some help in thinking about the approaching 2004 election. (Jan.)