WHAT ARE THE ODDS? The Chances of Extraordinary Events in Everyday Life

What could be better than a book on probability that doesn't bother with lots of pesky equations? There are only a few sentences here on those dreaded "standard deviations"—and even then, only to dismiss them. Weaver purports to examine the probability of (mostly) improbable phenomena, such as the likelihood of getting hit on the head by a meteor, of having simultaneous multiple sex partners, of writing a bestseller and getting murdered on the job. Since probability theory has little to offer in the evaluation of such phenomena, Weaver is freed from having to calculate much of anything, leaving plenty of space for his opinions on such topics as why we have violent crime when the government gives financial assistance to poor people, or whether nursing home injury rates are high because old men are trying to have sex with old ladies who might not be their wives. Now and then, Weaver does throw in some numbers (although he doesn't discuss his sources), e.g., that Americans have sex an average of 59.1 times a year—so what's that one tenth, Weaver wonders rather predictably, kissing, hugging, fondling? But then again, as Weaver himself says, "Statistics are tools and they are admittedly of limited effectiveness, particularly when used by persons of limited effectiveness." (Oct.)