Growth in the paper-producing industry is expected to be the slowest on record, according to the 39th annual capacity survey of the American Forest &Paper Association (AFPA), the trade association of the paper-producing industry.
The lack of growth d sn't mean price rises in 1999, however, according to industry experts, because the industry is just beginning to balance record growth in the early part of the decade. From 1992 to 1997, paper companies responding to explosive demand in Asia and Russia added many new production lines each year.
"It's a great time to lock in prices for the year," noted industry analyst Michael Ducey. "Rising inventories threatened a meltdown in prices coming into the new year, so many producers just shut down during the fourth quarter."
The AFPA capacity survey compares mill startups and closings, then forecasts paper-producing capacity over the next three years. The 1998 study shows that printing and writing papers capacity will grow just 0.8% in 1999-2001, the lowest since the survey was started, compared with a 1.9% rise in 1998, and 2.3% per year over the decade ending in 1998.
