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Category Close-Ups

Mystery: Revisiting the Scene of the Crime
Heather Vogel Frederick -- 4/24/00
Publishing pundits look back on the last decade
of this lively genre and make predictions about its future



Hitting bestseller lists for 44
years (S&S)
Recently, PW asked a number of publishers, editors and booksellers to pause for a moment on the threshold of the new millennium and take stock of mystery publishing--to reflect back on the major changes they have seen in the last decade and look ahead to trends they foresee for the next 10 years. Their responses provide an intriguing perspective on this perennially popular category.


"As we entered the early '90s, we were smack in the middle of a wonderful mystery renaissance," says Sara Ann Freed, editor-in-chief of Warner's Mysterious Press. "Many of the major houses had nicely established imprints, while other houses, not inclined to establish an imprint, saw the need to acquire established crime writers from other lists. The corporate enthusiasm paid off. Not since the days of Mary Roberts Rinehart and Agatha Christie had so many mystery and crime novels appeared on national bestseller lists. Independent mystery bookshops opened in key demographic areas, and chain stores increased shelf space. Mystery writers were even popping up on morning talk shows."

There was a downside to all this zeal, however. According to Avon/Morrow senior editor Jennifer Fisher, "The result was a fast and furious race to get on the mystery bandwagon." And, as Keith Kahla, senior editor at St. Martin's new Minotaur imprint adds wryly, "Being declared 'hot' is often the death knell for quality and growth in any genre. While the best books do usually rise to the top even during a boom cycle, they're often mired in a mass of not-so-very-good books. The result is usually the same--unrealistic expectations in terms of sales are not ultimately met, industry wisdom declares the genre to be 'dead,' and they rush to get out of the genre just as fast as they rushed to get into it." Many lists were trimmed as the decade progressed, as corporate mergers created "minor tremors" in the mystery community, Freed tells PW. All this resulted in increased competition.

"Publishers are fewer and bigger, and we're all going after the same authors," explains Scribner senior editor Susanne Kirk, who notes that the last decade began for her in a "spectacular" way, when Scribner published Patricia Cornwell's Postmortem in January 1990. "I bought the book for $6,000 and the rest, as they say, is history," she recalls. "I'm afraid that some books of the same potential quality are not being published today." The numbers on her own list bear testimony to the changes that have occurred. During the year Postmortem was published, Kirk did 26 mysteries. "This year I'm doing 11 or 12," she says. "I am probably responsible for more unit sales now, but the number of titles and authors is smaller."

Fisher concurs. "You're looking at lists that are becoming leaner and leaner. You can't have 20 titles on a list and hope that five will do well--it's just not like that any more. We're probably losing out to some exciting possibilities, but it's a choice we have to make. It's part of the marketplace right now." While this belt-tightening by many of the major players hasn't been painless--several point to the squeeze it's put on midlist authors in particular--the flip side has been a burgeoning of small presses. "They're not getting the also-rans any more; they're getting material that would have been published by New York publishers a few years ago," explains Kirk.
A husband-and-wife pseudonym
(CC Publishing)
Despite all the changes that have occurred in the business during the past 10 years, the bottom line is that "mystery as a genre is thriving," says Carolyn Lane, co-owner of Murder by the Book in Portland, Ore. For readers in particular, there's been a real proliferation of different kinds of mysteries, with sleuths of every stripe appearing on the scene in a variety of locales and time periods. "There's just lots and lots of stuff on the market, what with so many self-published and small press books right now," Lane continues.


Barrie Trinkle, mysteries and thrillers editor at Amazon.com, agrees. "It's a pretty hot category." She notes that a lot of the titles on its top-100 list are mysteries and thrillers, adding that "there's just so much to choose from now in terms of mood and character and setting." At Barnes & Noble, mystery sales are up 10% over last year, according to corporate communications director Debra Williams; senior buyer Sessalee Hensley says that it's "still a very strong category, one which hasn't depleted in any way over the last 10 years."

By and large, those with whom PW spoke are philosophical about the overall direction that the business has taken in the past decade. "With fewer books per month, you can sharpen your focus and devote more attention to those novelists and actually try to build careers," comments Ballantine associate publisher J Blades. "That's a real change from when I started 20 years ago, when books would appear in the catalogue and that was about it. There was no sense of nurturing an author's backlist and frontlist."

Associate publisher John Cunningham says that after 50 years of mystery publishing, St. Martin's felt the category "deserved more focus and attention than it was getting," and so launched its new Minotaur imprint last fall. The move, he believes, was well-timed. "We are positioning ourselves aggressively in the market just as others are pulling back"--a real boost in terms of acquiring new authors, he adds. Dana Stabenow (Midnight Come Again, May), formerly a Putnam author, has signed on, as has Boston Teran, whose novel God Is a Bullet (Knopf) was an Edgar-winner last year.

The shakedown in the category has had another upside. "Now, quality has become paramount in mystery," says Kahla. Walker & Co. editor Michael Seidman remarks, "I think the field needed to squeeze out some of the lesser titles. For a while mystery was almost like 'The Emperor's New Clothes'--a lot of people were seeing things that just weren't there."

As series editor for The Best American Mystery Stories of the Century (Houghton Mifflin, Apr.), Otto Penzler, owner of the New York City's Mysterious Bookshop, recently had a chance--along with guest editor Tony Hillerman--to riffle through 100 years of material. "We found wonderful stories--everything from Hammett and Chandler to some amazing early stuff by Steinbeck, Faulkner, Thurber, Willa Cather and Ring Lardner," he says. The project offered Penzler--who just stuck his finger into yet another pie, as editor of Otto Penzler Books, a new imprint at Carroll & Graf--a unique overview, and as he casts a critical eye on the past 10 years, he can barely contain his enthusiasm. "It's been a great decade for mysteries. I don't think there's ever been a time in the history of mystery fiction when so many good writers have written so many good books."

Penzler points to an overall elevation of the literary level in crime fiction and notes that many writers who have been regarded "purely as literary writers"--including Joyce Carol Oates, E.L. Doctorow and Anita Shreve--have made inroads into the genre, while at the same time, such mystery authors as Dennis Lehane, James Crumley, Ruth Rendell and P.D. James ("writers who, if they weren't writing about murder, would be regarded as serious and talented novelists") have moved away from pure tales of observation and deduction into serious character books about people driven to extremes of emotion, causing them to murder.

Doubleday senior editor Shawn Coyne also sees a broadening of the category's appeal. "I think the more literary crowd is being brought into the circle, giving the broader-themed works more exposure, thus the emergence of writers such as Robert Crais, Tami Hoag, Michael Connelly, George P. Pelecanos and Ian Rankin. I also find it fascinating that one of the darlings of the literary world, Jonathan Lethem, chose the conventions of the crime novel as the backbone for his NBCC Award-winning novel Motherless Brooklyn." Increasingly, he says, crime fiction "is coming out of genre and being read by people who only a few years ago wouldn't dream of picking up a crime novel. And the box office success of L.A. Confidential and The Talented Mr. Ripley seems to be the Hollywood equivalent of this publishing trend."

Enthusiasm for the current level of quality throughout the genre abounds, with some touting recent years as a second golden age in American mystery writing. "There's no question about it," says Putnam senior editor David Highfill. "Some of the bestselling authors--Sue Grafton, Robert B. Parker, Patricia Cornwell--are writing the best books they've ever written." Brian Tart, editor-in-chief of Dutton, adds that he finds it "rewarding" that so many mystery writers are finally getting noticed beyond the bounds of the category. "It's fun to see so many people--from Elizabeth George to Elmore Leonard to Michael Connelly--break out due to the quality of their writing."

For true category fans, the decade has also been a rewarding one, notes Pamela Dorman, executive editor at Viking. "I think that when straightforward mysteries can become bestsellers, that's terrific news," she tells PW. "I see that Nevada Barr just made the bestseller list with Deep South [Putnam], as has Diane Mott Davidson with Tough Cookie [Bantam]. They're still writing the same kinds of books as when they first started, though somewhat broader, and really it's about building an audience."

Sales at Barnes & Noble are up about 20% on Barr's latest, according to Hensley, news that Putnam senior editor Christine Pepe finds "truly gratifying, because it seems so old-fashioned now to have someone grow that way. She's been with us since her first mystery and has just grown by leaps and bounds with each book."

Good Things, Small Packages

For smaller presses, all the changes of the past decade have flung wide the doors of opportunity, claims Barbara Peters, who wears two hats--bookseller and publisher--at Poisoned Pen Press in Scottsdale, Ariz.

"Ten years ago, I wouldn't even have thought about publishing," she admits. When the idea did finally cross her mind three or four years ago, she thought only in terms of reprinting backlist. Now, however, "I've recognized that big publishing has just basically cleared out and opened up the market for original publishing. As a result, I think small presses have an opportunity not only to acquire authors of merit but to focus on the traditional mystery or detective story, which is too small a book for big publishers now."

Many midlist mystery authors who were dropped by the larger publishers have had to "find homes at other houses," explains Walker publicist Cassie Dendurent, a predicament that offered "ample opportunities for smaller publishers such as Walker, who can devote more time to individual books and authors and, by that amount of focus, expand their readership."

Seidman notes that it was this shift that brought Lev Raphael (Little Miss Evil, Apr.) to Walker, and others are benefiting as well. According to Academy Chicago v-p Jordan Miller, "We're getting really good books that we wouldn't have 10 or 15 years ago. I think all small presses are in a better position for that reason, and we're quite happy about it." He cites Dorothy and Sidney Rosen's Belle Appleman series as a case in point. Death and Blintzes received "first-rate" reviews, he says; it will be followed in June by Death and Strudel.

George Phocas, who took over Intrigue Press last year, agrees. "I thought this was a great moment to step into the business," he says. "There's more chance for a small guy to compete with the big publishing houses than there ever has been before." For one thing, the available pool of talent has leveled the playing field somewhat, claims Peters, noting that Poisoned Pen has received its second Edgar nomination in three years, for Val McDermid's A Suitable Job for a Woman. "One can conclude from this that a small press can do everything that big-name houses can--except have big-name authors, because we just don't have the money," says Peters. This particular point worries Enid Schantz, who co-owns the Rue Morgue Press in Boulder, Colo., with her husband, Tom. "Writers are at least going to have some kind of an outlet," she says. "Whether or not they can make a living at it is another question."

The reality of small publishing, notes Martin Shepard, copublisher with his wife, Judith, of the Permanent Press, whose own stable includes two-time Edgar nominee Domenic Stansberry (Manifesto for the Dead, Jan.) and Mitch Cullins (Branches, Mar.), is that "while a big house has to sell at least 10,000 copies--and if you only sell 10,000 copies they're not going to want you anyway--we cover our nut when we sell about 1,000 copies of a book, and a 5,000-copy print run that sold out would be considered a bestseller."

Technological advances in recent years have also given this segment of the industry a boost, what with the advent of print on demand and digital cameras, which make it possible for small presses to create "a really fabulous-looking book," says Peters. "Technology makes it all so much easier, faster and cheaper," agrees Enid Schantz. "It's so much easier to be a publisher now than it was 20 years ago."

Whodunit-Yourselfers

The proliferation of small presses has spawned a related trend, as more and more self-published mysteries have cropped up in recent years. "It's now possible for anyone to publish a book at a reasonable cost," notes John Celestri, president and publisher of CC Publishing, who with his wife, Cathie, writes
Regionals--all the rage
(Mysterious Press)
mysteries under the pen name Cathie John. "Dropped authors and first-time authors are now starting to embrace this technology and see it as a way of getting their stories to the mystery reading public."


An experienced self-publisher of comic books and graphic novels, Celestri was aware of the potential difficulties going in ("the whole concept of small presses is that you're not good enough for the big shots," he opines) but felt confident that attitudes were going to be changing. In fact, he's seen a real shift in the past five years; some of the stigma attached to self-publishing has gradually lifted, in the view of both booksellers and major review vehicles.

"Once the genre started losing some of its favorite authors in the consolidation of houses, both mystery readers and fan publications began looking at the small presses and independently published authors like ourselves as a potential source of fresh blood for the genre," explains Celestri, whose most recent title, Carve a Witness to Shreds, was favorably reviewed by PW, among others. "We're now seeing these kinds of books reviewed on a regular basis."

Spinning a Mysterious Web

If there is a single overriding feature of this past decade, according to mystery publishers and booksellers alike, it's the advent of the Internet. "It's a tool we couldn't have envisioned 10 years ago," notes Joseph Pittman, senior editor at NAL/Signet. "The Internet has changed every part of publishing, but especially mysteries," says Tart. "It's made it much easier to reach a market, including the bookseller."

Small publishers have found it a boon as well. "Even if we can't get to the front shelves of the bookstores, we can certainly get online exposure and develop direct relationships with readers," Intrigue Press's Phocas tells PW. "This wasn't an option before."

Web sites, for instance, a novelty just a few short years ago, are now de rigueur for publishers large and small. Many post monthly mystery newsletters, and quizzes and contests are popular. Signet created an online quiz (www.penguinputnam.com) for Tamar Myers's March title, The Hand That Rocks the Ladle ("readers can play along, but they've also got to buy the book to complete the game," explains Pittman), and Ballantine's monthly "Murder on the Internet"--which was "in the vanguard of online newsletter publishing," according to Blades--offers a link to author Gillian Roberts's Web site, where readers can try and guess character C.K. Mackenzie's first name. The first 20 people to guess correctly will receive a free autographed copy of Roberts's latest, Helen Hath No Fury (Aug.).

Last year, Lisa Scottoline hosted an "edit me" contest on her Web site for Mistaken Identity, which HarperCollins executive editor Carolyn Marino reports drew a "huge number of people." To promote her latest mystery, Moment of Truth (Feb.), she requested favorite lawyer jokes from readers to use in her upcoming books.

For the past couple of years, Intrigue Press has posted the first chapter of all its books online (www.intriguepress.com). "At the time, we didn't know of anyone else who was doing it, and we thought it would be a good way to involve readers," recalls Phocas, who is also offering special Web discounts for George Grayson's forthcoming The Revolutionary's Confession (June).

The Web is even turning up in mystery novels themselves, S&S senior editor Sydny Miner points out, citing Joan Hess's recent Murder@Maggody.com, which explores what happens when a small town g s online.

More than anything, the Internet has turned authors into marketers. According to Pittman, "Every author these days is developing a Web site, and that's great." In fact, says Avon/Morrow's Fisher, "A Web site is not an option anymore for authors, it's a necessity." As J Blades puts it, "It's something mystery authors must do for themselves at every level, category and midlist authors as well as the bigger names."

Pointing out that, as in the romance category, creating an interesting Web site has proven to be a tremendously effective way to market a mystery title, Hyperion associate publisher Ellen Archer says, "The value of a mystery author's Web site should not be underestimated." She cites Ridley Pearson's site (www.ridleypearson.com) as a prime example of how authors can maintain and increase their fan base and offer customers a place to find comprehensive information about them and their works.

Joan Hess's site (www.maggody.com) has everything from a map of her fictional Arkansas town to recipes of the month. "Fans want to immerse themselves in the world that the writer creates," Miner notes. "We have always seen this in science fiction, and I think we're going to see more of it in mystery."

Most authors undertake a Web site on their own, but in Nancy Atherton's case (Aunt Dimity Beats the Devil, Viking, and Aunt Dimity's Christmas, Penguin, both Oct.), "we actually financed her Web site," says Penguin director of publicity Maureen Donnelly of www.auntdimity.com. "We chose to put a fair amount of our marketing money into that rather than a tour," explains Dorman. "We wanted to do something that we've never done before, and the response has been terrific." This is particularly interesting, she notes, in light of the fact that many of Atherton's readers are often older and "very traditional."

Neil Nyren, publisher and editor-in-chief of Putnam, points out that not only d s the Internet allow publishers to keep readers informed about their books "in a more sophisticated way," but it enables them to establish much closer connections to mystery bookstores. "That's only going to get bigger in the next 10 years," he opines. By taking advantage of that connection, Murder by the Book's Lane is able to offer her customers more personalized service, from sending them advance notice by e-mail about forthcoming books by their favorite authors to posting a complete listing of all new mysteries each month on her store's site (www.mbtb.com).

Online booksellers such as Amazon.com, which didn't even exist 10 years ago, "have got to be good for mysteries as well," says Dorman. "This is basically a backlist business, and even bookstores with good sections don't have every last P.D. James in stock. They've made it possible to get whatever you want, when you want it, and that's tremendously helpful for any genre."

The kind of visibility the Internet affords can also help boost sales, as Kent Carroll, publisher and editor-in-chief of Carroll & Graf, discovered last year when Denise Mina's Garnethill (Mar.) was featured on Amazon.com for a week. "That alone resulted in an additional 1,000 copies sold," he tells PW. "It was extraordinarily helpful." Another virtue of online booksellers, notes Putnam's Pepe, is the manner in which they are used by customers for research and browsing. "Bookstores take you down one path, and online you get pointed in a way that you might not have been otherwise."

Kate Miciak, executive editor at Bantam Dell, finds this particularly important. "It definitely influences the way readers venture forward. If you like an author, you go to the Internet and see other recommendations, and you sample them." One source of such recommendations is Amazon.com's monthly "Penzler's Picks," a recent joint venture with bookseller Otto Penzler. Trinkle says that customers are finding them helpful--herself included. ("I spend far too much money because of them," she admits sheepishly).

Penzler, who d sn't own a computer personally ("My IBM electric has been with me for 30 years, it's never crashed, I don't have to back it up, and it's never lost anything"), was leery of the idea at first, adding that when he agreed to the proposition, his staff was outraged: "They thought I'd gone over to the dark side." But he's found the partnership to be mutually beneficial as it gives his own bookstores wider visibility, and best of all, "I get to tell a million people about books that I love."

Sleuthing the Marketplace

In a market that Miciak at Bantam Dell describes as "truly, truly crowded," it's no secret that savvy marketing has become the name of the game over the past decade.

"We ourselves publish five mass market mysteries every month, so we're our own competition without anyone else getting into the game," quips Berkley Prime Crime senior editor Natalee Rosenstein. "It's no longer enough for a mystery to be well written and well plotted to get published. There must be something else that makes it stand out." Citing Earlene Fowler (Seven Sisters, Apr.), whose protagonist is a rancher and quilter, as an example, she notes that while the books are traditional mysteries, "they involve American arts and crafts as well, and I think this draws in people who might not otherwise be reading mysteries."

Increasingly, publishers are looking for authors with a hook--certainly not standard practice 10 years ago. Scribner is hoping that John Dunning, who detours from his antiquarian book expert mystery series next year with Two O'clock Eastern Wartime, a 1942 radio thriller, will join the ranks of forensic anthropologist Kathy Reichs (Deadly Decisions, July) and Manhattan Assistant D.A. Linda Fairstein (Cold Hit, coming in paper from Pocket this summer) as authors with a real-life hook. An expert on vintage radio and former radio host, Dunning owns some 40,000 tapes of old radio shows, says Kirk. "The promotion possibilities for John are endless, starting of course with talk radio."

Miciak also cites the importance of "synergy" between a book's cover look, packaging and the need to link the mass market reprint with the new hardcover. "That's absolutely critical," she remarks. Susan Corcoran, associate director of publicity at Bantam Dell, concurs. "The one-two punch of closely timed paperback and hardcover releases can dramatically bolster the growth of an author's audience."

Targeted marketing is another must now, adds Pittman. "You can't just put a book out there and expect it to sell. You have to target a readership." At the Mysterious Press, such tailored marketing campaigns have helped broaden a book's core readership, explains Freed. "Regional favorites such as [Vermont-based] Archer Mayor [Occam's Razor] and [North Carolina's] Margaret Maron [Storm Track] saw increased sales through targeted tours, publicity, advertising and Web marketing," she notes.Fisher sees this as "one of the biggest pluses" in terms of change this past decade. "There were very good books and talented writers 10 years ago, but they were just sort of going out there." Now, thanks in large part to the proliferation of subgenres, "We've figured out who the readers are, and as publishers we can direct the package." For example, Avon capitalized on the "charming romantic tone" of Jane Isenberg's recent Death in a Hot Flash (Feb.)--which features a menopausal sleuth--by pitching the book to romance readers, Fisher tells PW.

Yet another angle is the pre-sell tour, which Hyperion's Archer feels helps raise an author's profile by enabling booksellers to put a face and personality to a book. This tack boosted hardcover orders for Ridley Pearson's Middle of Nowhere (June), and a phone card promotion ("Call for help if you're stuck in the middle of nowhere") is also proving popular. As she puts it, "If you've got something quirky, play it up." Another case in point: to promote The Hearse You Came in On, author Tim Cockey is driving a hearse from Baltimore to Maine, stopping at bookstores along the way. Says Archer, "Tim took a lot of initiative and it's paid off in spades," noting that the March title has already been back to press.

Not everyone is bullish on such efforts, however. Poisoned Pen Press's Peters, for one, notes that she's often put off by the emphasis on presentation rather than product. "D s it need recipes? D s it have some sort of package gimmick? D s it come with embroidery patterns, crossword puzzles, whatever? For me, there's absolutely no substitute for opening the book and reading it."

A Popular Format Takes Off

Along with the approach of the millennium came "the slow rise of trade paperback as a viable commercial format for mystery--both as original and reprint from hardcover," according to St. Martin's Kahla, who suspects that, given the current economic realities of publishing, this will only continue.

Many smaller presses have already staked a claim. Academy Chicago Publishers moved to trade paperback for reprints three or four years ago, reports Jordan Miller, and Soho has used the format exclusively since the inception of its Soho Crime series in 1994. "In the beginning, it took a while to get started, as trade paperback price points are a little more, but it's been successful," says Soho's marketing director Melanie Fleishman, noting the steady growth in sales for "veteran" authors Janwillem van de Wetering and J. Robert Janes, as well as newcomers including Cara Black and Stan Jones.

Others are testing the waters as well. The Mysterious Press is repackaging Peter Dickinson's Some Deaths Before Dying as part of its emerging trade paperback program, and Walker recently embarked on trade paperback editions of books by Bill Pronzini (Nothing but the Night) and James Sallis (Eye of the Cricket). "This fall, we will have 10 trade paperback mysteries in print," notes Walker's Dendurent. "We are cautiously optimistic."

Steve Ross, editorial director at Crown, notes that his primary concern "was whether or not there would be review space for books in [the trade paperback] format." His reluctance finally melted a couple of years ago on a trip to London, when he walked into a bookstore there and discovered that not only had trade paperbacks taken hold but had in fact become "the major format." Sensing an increased receptivity in the U.S. marketplace for the right kind of books--"hipper, edgier and aimed toward a younger audience"--he says that Crown is trying out trade paperbacks "very, very selectively." The house zer d in on British author Lauren Henderson, a founding member along with Sparkle Hayter (The Chelsea Girl Murders, Morrow, May) and Katy Munger (Bad to the Bone, Avon, June) of the irreverently self-styled Tart Noir (www.tartcity.com) genre. Ross is happy to report his initial concerns about the format were unfounded and that Henderson's Freeze My Margarita (Feb.) is getting "tremendous review coverage in all the right vehicles." Henderson's next Sam Jones mystery, The Strawberry Tattoo, will be released in October.

Trafalgar Square, which 10 years ago began importing "relatively expensive British hardcovers," has shifted its emphasis in mysteries in the last few years to mass market and trade paperback, according to managing director Paul Feldstein. "There's a lot more coming over from the U.K. now," he says, noting that the press has just cleared five WWII thrillers in this format by Alan Furst (Night Soldiers, July).

Although Hensley at Barnes & Noble says she isn't seeing trade paperbacks as a growth trend yet in mysteries, except in noir, she expects it will catch on. "Our trade paperback sales in regular fiction are phenomenal, so I think mysteries will follow. If only Oprah would pick one...."

Ladies and Other Specialties

One of the most obvious trends over the past decade, Bantam Dell's Corcoran tells PW, "is the rise and continued dominance of women writers in the genre," many of whom, she points out, now dominate bestseller lists. "The '80s saw the rise in popularity of the female sleuth, and this has continued into the '90s," notes Marino at HarperCollins, while Hensley ventures so far to say that "Female sleuths actually put mystery on the map"--by attracting women looking for good reads to a once mostly male bastion.

Corcoran gives the nod to such writers as Sara Paretsky, Elizabeth George, Diane Mott Davidson and Perri O'Shaughnessy, while B&N's Williams adds Patricia Cornwell, Janet Evanovich and Faye Kellerman to the list of superstars. "When it comes to mysteries, women still rule the roost," she says.

Another genre segment that has blossomed in the last decade--and which shows no signs of slowing down, according to Lane, whose own bookstore boasts a thriving "Once Upon a Crime" section--is historicals. "It's still a very strong growth area," agrees Hensley, particularly with books about Jane Austen or the Elizabethan era. "I have not had one of those not work yet." (This should be good news for Stephanie Barron, whose fifth installment in her bestselling Jane Austen series, Jane and the Stillroom Maid, is due out from Bantam in August.)

Signet will launch Mary Jo Adamson's The Blazing Tree (June), featuring a police reporter in 1840s Boston, reports Pittman, who muses that the draw to historicals, for writers and readers alike, is perhaps that "as we head toward this time of technological uncertainty, there is safety in what's familiar."

Overall, this is a real change from 10 years ago, says Rosenstein, when "other than a few Victorian-era mysteries, historicals just weren't being done." The success of such authors as Anne Perry, whose Half Moon Street was just released by Ballantine, and Caleb Carr (The Alienist) "really opened up the doors," she notes; Berkley is set to launch a new hardcover series next month by Regency scholar Rosemary Stevens, set in 18th-century London and featuring Beau Brummell as the sleuth (Death on a Silver Tray).

Also going full steam ahead are books with a strong regional flavor. "The Southwest has Tony Hillerman, Louisiana has James Lee Burke, Washington, D.C., has George Pelecanos, L.A. has Michael Connelly, Chicago has Sara Paretsky and Boston has Dennis Lehane," says Tart, adding that Dutton's own Barbara Parker, who writes about Miami, just hit the bestseller list for the first time with Suspicion of Malice. In his view, "Strong writing and a strong sense of place is a winning combination."

It's a combination that helped put an unlikely candidate on the crime map when Ohio University Press ventured into mysteries for the first time last year with P.L. Gaus's Blood of the Prodigal. Director David Sanders was intrigued by Gaus's sensitive exploration of Ohio's Amish community; he tells PW the follow-up title, Broken English (June), is "an even better book all around." Both titles have been picked up by the Mystery Book Guild. "The mysteries have given us, as a publisher, entry into smaller and general bookstores that have been--often with reason--hesitant to stock most university press books," reports marketing manager Sharon Arnold. "Sales have been brisk." Mean- while, noir mysteries "have been doing exceptionally well in the marketplace" for the Permanent Press, says Shepard, as they have for Dufour Editions, says associate publisher and marketing director Tom Lavoie, who offers rougher, hard-edged British imports ("definitely not the high tea mysteries") such as last month's Oh No, Not My Baby by Russell James and Stitch by John B. Spencer.

No matter the particular subgenre, according to Putnam's Highfill, in the end, "The great books are always going to be about character." He offersLee Child's protagonist Jack Reacher, who will be back this July in Running Blind, as an example. "It's the emotionally true, vivid characters you meet in books such as these that stay with you, not the plots." Kent Carroll has also found a market for character-driven novels, such as next month's An English Murder by Louise Doughty. "General readers who are not mystery habitues," he explains, "have found in mystery and crime stories some of the moral conflicts and ideas about contemporary life that they often find wanting in general fiction."

Forecasting the Future

If the past decade has brought tremendous changes to the mystery category, what will the next 10 years bring?

"I suspect it's an arena that will always flourish," answers Carroll; St. Martin's Cunningham adds that he continues to "marvel at the resiliency of the mystery business." Certainly if any one writer symbolizes that resiliency it's Ed McBain, who has been topping bestseller lists since 1956 with his 87th Precinct series. Otto Penzler calls him "a national treasure" and chose his 50th novel, The Last Dance (Simon & Schuster, Jan.), as a recent "Penzler's Pick" on Amazon.com.

Peters sees continued movement "away from the pure mystery into the mainstream," and Rosenstein concurs, predicting continued growth for the category as crime novels become more taken for granted as mainstream fiction. "I believe that this trend will, in turn, mean that many kinds of nontraditional crime novels will be accepted as part of the mystery genre." Echoing this assessment, Penzler adds that "the line between good mystery writers and the straight general novelists will be even more blurry than it is now."

Kahla agrees: "At its best, mystery is about complex characters drawn into a crisis set about a particular event. That this event is a crime is a defining point, but outside of that, this is not far from the definition of any novel." He also predicts that it will no longer be a "requirement" for mystery authors to write about a series character, something he says has been "publishing cant" over the past decade. "We're slowly seeing this erode," he tells PW, with authors such as P.D. James, Minette Walters and Val McDermid (whose September title A Place of Execution will anchor Minotaur's fall list) leading the way. Robert Crais follows suit next month with his first non-Elvis Cole novel, Demolition Angel (Doubleday).

There are bound to be other surprises on the road ahead, Miciak points out: "This is the most voracious and adventurous market I know of, and d that's why it's so much fun." Whatever new blips appear on the mystery radar screen in years to come, "The desire for a great mystery won't die--but you sure hope someone d s, otherwise what will our wily sleuths do?" quips Pittman.

The truth is, S&S's Miner concludes, "Human nature d sn't change. Our clothes change, our technology changes, but the passions that drive people to commit a crime, which is what these books are all about, d sn't change, and that's endlessly fascinating. Whether its Brother Cadfael or Hal the computer in 2001, it really d sn't matter. As long as people fall in love with the wrong person or become greedy or jealous, there will be mysteries."
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