This story is presented as part of the Frankfurt Book Fair's "Big Questions" research and conference. We will present our findings as part of the conference on October 8 at Frankfurt. For more information, go towww. frankfurt-book-fair.com/bigquestions/pw.

Like rolling earthquakes, new technology continues to rumble along the length and breadth of the publishing value chain, from author through agent, publisher, printer, distributor, library, bookseller, all the various players, to the ultimate end user. Curiously, however, in some cases, the earth actually moves, while in others, the perception that the earth might one day tremble is all that has happened. The latter, at least as far as trade publishing is concerned, is the situation with e-books on hand-held readers. As Henry Yuen, CEO of Gemstar, feared it might be—and as the general media have now affirmed to be the case—the e-reader marketplace appears "dead on arrival," except for a small band of early adopters.

This is true in library circles as well. "We are not lending e-books," noted Susan Kent, director of the Los Angeles Public Library. "They are unwieldy and unreadable." In a very different environment, Lori Barkema, library director in Albert Lea, Minn., said, "E-books are just not catching on. Not here, and not in the larger cities. And Minnesotans are big readers. It will be at least five years." At Yale, associate university librarian Ann Okerson added, "We are just not there yet. Even publishers have not engaged with e-books."

Just across the proverbial aisle, however, publishers of journals are watching as a significant portion of their marketplace turns to electronic delivery of content, changing fundamental behavior for publishers, librarians and content aggregators, as well as the full range of users: professionals, scholars, researchers and students. One of the major changes may be the rise of the "article economy"—shorthand for a market for a specific article, rather than its "containing" journal. "For many academic users," noted Tom Peters of the Council on Institutional Cooperation (which consists of the Big 10 universities and the University of Chicago), "digital content will become the norm fairly soon. The advantages of the format simply outweigh the disadvantages, even considering the eyestrain." As John Berry, editor-in-chief of Library Journal, pointed out in a recent editorial: "In nearly all research on what users expect from libraries, content and services from both the new and old economies are demanded. Users put to rest any notion that the new can or should replace the old."

In this spirit, not surprisingly, tens of thousands of "books" as digital files are finding their way via computer to patrons through any number of providers—such as netLibrary, Rovia in the higher education area, Fictionwise.com, ElectricStory.com and e-Reads.com in trade—both with and without encryption or DRM technologies. The discovery of a chink in the armor of Adobe's e-book software, and the bizarre arrest of Russian programmer Dmitri Sklyarov, are indicators of just how irrational certain aspects of the marketplace have become—accelerated by awkward legislation, not to mention a degree of panic on the part of content owners and technologists.

Big Questions for Libraries

In sum, there are many "big questions" facing all those whose businesses deal with content that was formerly available exclusively as physical books and journals—whether librarians, publishers, booksellers or distributors. These questions will be debated at the Big Questions Conference, organized by the Frankfurt Book Fair and the Idea Logical Company, and sponsored by Reciprocal on behalf of a partnership of book industry publications including PW, LJ, [Inside] and the Bookseller.

But are we dealing with fact or feeling? Is there a solid basis for claiming that librarians are moving to meet the challenges of a new environment? Or is changing technology a sort of Cheshire cat that disappears into its own smile? Among the questions to be addressed at Frankfurt:

  • Are new technologies changing the demand for books and journals in libraries?

  • Are libraries acting as innovators in terms of e-book use and reading text on screens?

  • Is "librarianship" changing (or able to keep up) in the age of online content?

What Are Libraries Buying? The last few years have seen some economic pressures taken off libraries. According to Library Journal's Budget Report 2001, total budgets are up, by some 6.5%. Nonetheless, there are still tough calls to be made in developing collections, and, as LJ has also reported, print periodicals have "suffered a downswing" due to ever-rising prices, and libraries are adopting a strategy of "slashing direct subscription of titles accessible in aggregated data bases." In terms of digital materials, as Peters put it, "The hype is over and we are now into the quiet adoption phase."

Most observers note a steady increase in spending for electronic materials. Okerson said the Yale library spent approximately 10% of its budget on digital content during the previous academic year, almost double what it spent two years ago. She added: "And in libraries at smaller schools, which are focusing on immediate user needs and not preserving great collections, 'trading out' to electronic collections will probably happen even faster." Kate Wittenberg, director of the Electronic Publishing Initiative at Columbia University, mentioned that some of her small library clients are calling electronic resources a bargain: "They are telling me, 'We just couldn't duplicate the same collection in the print world for that price.' "

Andres Nannetti, CEO of the online courseware company Rovia, foresees the college marketplace reaching critical mass in terms of electronic delivery of course material over the next two years. "Libraries appear to be much more comfortable as we continue to integrate digital resources into their OPACs," asserted Miriam Gilbert, senior director, publisher relations at netLibrary. "We are finding that a key issue is training the people involved in expanding their electronic collections—technical as well as acquisitions people." According to Gilbert, "It's clear that increasing usage is driving up sales and thus creating a forward momentum."

Taking a longer view, Glen Holt, director of the St. Louis Public Library, described a process of distribution of electronic content that began 10 years ago with long-playing records, and then videos, tape recordings, books on tape, CDs, recently DVDs, with e-books just coming on stream. "This progression of technology is part of library history," he added. "Some 30%—35% of all the material that circulates from my library is electronic."

Untapped Opportunity

A recent study funded by the Mellon Foundation entitled BYTES (Books You Teach Every Semester), in which Okerson was involved, focused on the possibility of e-books for supplementary readings in college courses, now often delivered as photocopied coursepacks. According to Lew Gossage, head of ProQuest's XanEdu unit, this is a $300 million—$400 million marketplace (mostly in paper) with significant upside potential, including online delivery. "We are seeing growth in double digits, driven by instructors' desire to customize their courses and to incorporate the Internet." As has been reported, the BYTES study found that not only is there a lack of appropriate content in digital form, "there is the lack of a suitable, affordable business model for delivering the needed books in electronic formats."

Higher education publishers and libraries will also face a high-stakes convergence as teaching materials go online, and libraries have the opportunity to become the repository as well as distribution channel for digital courseware. Academic librarians already report steady pressure for digitizing their collections, not to mention providing 24/7 remote access to their materials. One of the more dynamic aspects of distance learning is represented by students and faculty who are merely across campus in their dorm rooms and offices and who on occasion would prefer to visit the library virtually. And as courses include more digital elements, the options for libraries expand, not only to teach the skills of online research and content evaluation, but to participate in individual courses. For example, Linda TerHaar, head of the Shapiro Undergraduate Library at the University of Michigan, described creating an online tutorial to help those enrolled in a 600-student psychology course master the research skills needed for their term papers.

This dynamic environment, however, is something of a patchwork quilt. Librarians still face the longtime reality: many publishers view them statically, simply as a market for about 10% of the books publishers bring out. However, given their direct relationship with consumers, libraries could well play a more dynamic role. "They [publishers] missed an opportunity two years ago," said Peters. "They could have used us when e-book readers first came out to test the marketplace." Publishers may be unaware that some 95% of libraries are wired and more than 70% of Internet users are also library users. Those who have worked with new technology companies, whether in DRM, conversion, software platforms or new distribution techniques for e-content, have generally found publishers to be resistant to making more than minimal content available in digital form.

Innovators or Followers?

By and large, it appears that user demand determines what technologies libraries adopt to deliver content to their patrons. Thus, they are not always leaders in innovation. In the academic world, Wittenberg noted, "The answer depends which group you are referring to. A few publishers are putting things of such value online that the faculty cannot help but be drawn to using them. However, we are not teaching students anything new. In my focus groups of users, I get told: 'Excuse me, but we've been doing research on the Internet since eighth grade.' "

The world of public libraries is a bit different. Like Berry, Kent suggests, "In terms of users, technology is no replacement for ink on paper. We are even seeing a whole new class of patrons who come into the library looking for technology and leave with printed books." At the same time, Kent described new services in which author readings will be recorded and delivered to online users as streaming video. John Nichols, director of the public library in Oshkosh, WI, explained in an LJ piece that a tech company like Oracle might take six months to get a new idea for product or service to the public, while in a library, the same process takes about three years.

Holt explained that with a total annual budget for academic and public libraries in the U.S. of about $11 billion—$13 billion, "Libraries are a relatively small industry. By and large, we can't ever afford to be on the bleeding edge. But some of the more well-financed institutions are certainly among the early adopters." The fiduciary responsibility to the taxpayer is another consideration. "You can't ever get ahead of the public," Barkema cautioned. "After all, it is public money."

However, libraries are unquestionably early adopters in terms of their own infrastructure needs. "Technology has had a major impact on our operations and on how we deliver services," said Kent. "We certainly are anything but followers in terms of automation technologies, with electronic catalogues, databases and the like." Anyone who has visited the reading room of the New York Public Library, with its rows of terminals, as well as T1 face plates at every seat so that patrons can plug in their own laptops, will have an understanding of how libraries are embracing technology.

Time frame becomes an important consideration. "Libraries are experiencing a large, long-term revolution," noted Peters. "In one sense, they are still medieval, viewing information as scarce, precious and stable, focusing on the value of collections. Now, of course, there is a glut of information that is not static, and does not need to reside in any one particular space." Considering this fundamental change, Peters said the key question is how to exploit information in a new way. "Even accessibility, which used to be a yes/no question, has now become nuanced," he noted.

One area in which libraries may "innovate" is in providing expanded accessibility to unique local materials through digitization. While the intent is not necessarily to profit from this, expenses are being recovered. Kent described archives of photographs and materials put into digital form that are finding an enthusiastic audience. Whether libraries are leaders or followers in the adoption of new technology, clearly a new wind is blowing. "This reinventing of the library," Berry asserted, "is going on all around the world, for libraries of all types."

Can Libraries Keep Up?

A major challenge posed by the Internet and its rolling waves of new information is whether librarians can cope with it all. Notwithstanding the proliferation of material online, there was a general consensus that librarians have the ability and interest to keep pace with digital information. Moreover, they will serve a crucial role in helping patrons of all stripes make quality use of online resources. As Wittenberg observed, "Librarians are trained in information organization and retrieval. They are more than up to the task of providing guidance with online content." By the same token, as Kent remarked, "Online resources put remarkable responsibility on librarians who traditionally simply had to know their collections, or pass the patron on. With technology, the collection is global, and people have become more impatient. They want the answer now." Technology, however, also makes it possible for users to do much of the searching and retrieval that was exclusively the librarians' province. Furthermore, Nichols said, libraries must do a better job of counteracting the myth underlying the frequently heard question: "Why do we need the public library when we have the Internet?" "The seed of doubt has been sown," he observed, "and we have the challenge of dispelling that."

Along with this challenge of perception is another one, namely, the challenge of competition. Incursion into libraries' turf by such entities as online booksellers, Internet portals and reference engines, is causing some librarians to think about pursuing new patrons more aggressively. Allan Paschal, CEO of the Gale Group, warned, "The [opportunity to be] the virtual library will pass them by if they don't continually remind people that they are still at the center of the information universe."

Intense though the current moment of technological innovation may be, historically speaking, such dynamic challenges are nothing new for libraries. For all its drama, the current new technology is also just the next step in a centuries-old process of the evolution of textual information. Librarians, it appears, are comfortable with "the more things change, the more they stay the same" concept. "It's a basic tenet of libraries—you change and adapt," Barkema said. "We do this every time a new technology comes along—teaching people how to judge its value and use it. That's our job."