The temperature of the hot U.S. graphic novel market may be cooling a bit, but it's still cooking. Total estimated retail sales of graphic novels in the U.S. in 2004 were between $205 million and $210 million, about a 35% increase over 2003 sales, according to Milton Griepp, director of ICV2.com, a trade news Web site focusing on comics and pop-culture merchandise. The sales figure includes sales from general bookstores and the comics shop market. The 35% growth rate was down from the nearly 50% sales increase posted in 2003.

Manga, Griepp said, continued to drive graphic novel sales in bookstores, and sales through the bookstore market outstripped the direct market: $140 million through bookstores and $67 million through comics shops. "The spread between bookstores and the direct market is increasing," said Griepp. "The growth is coming from manga in bookstores." Griepp said sales of manga through bookstores increased 40% in 2004. Direct-market stores, traditionally focused on superhero comics and related merchandise, remain ambivalent about manga. Some stores are dropping the category, usually because of lack of space.

Sales of superhero titles, said Griepp, "overall, were very good," although he said there has been some decline in shelf space for nonmanga graphic novels. "Some of the movies based on comics did not drive sales of the books as well as in the past, but Sin City could change that. This is a hit-driven business."

Despite the steady growth in sales, there is a general concern that the rapid increase in manga titles will create a glut and undermine growth. And the recent layoffs and cutbacks at smaller manga publishing operations such as ADV Manga, CPM and ComicsOne only fuel the concern. But Griepp, as well as book retailers contacted by PW, aren't worried. Griepp said, "Manga sales continue to grow, and overall the market is healthy. Shakeouts are normal." Griepp acknowledged that the number of titles is growing faster than shelf space but, he said, consumer demand remains high. "There are more options and consumers are becoming more discerning. We expect more rack space for manga to open this year."

Griepp said concern about a glut was coming mostly from the direct market, long afflicted by boom and bust periods linked to the comics industry's overdependence on collectibility and promotional gimmicks. "Manga isn't collected," said Griepp. "Sales aren't related to tin-foil covers that flood the market. Manga is published to be read."

Total U.S. Retail Graphic Novels Sales 2002—2004
(in millions)

2002 2003 2004
Source: ICV2.com
Bookstores $60 $105 $140
Comics Shops 50 60 67
Total $110 $165 $207