The picture book wall at a Barnes & Noble.
Many booksellers are being more discriminating
in their picture book selections.
Photo: Joseph O. Holmes

Once an industry staple, in recent years picture book sales have begun to slip, pushed out of the way by a certain boy wizard and teen angst. Gone are the days when parents eagerly await the next Maurice Sendak or Chris Van Allsburg. Although publishing insiders agree that picture books are not dead—or as Mark Twain would have it, "News of their death has been greatly exaggerated"—outside of celebrity books and titles by established authors and illustrators, sales have been slow of late. Retailers are buying more selectively, and in response, a number of publishers have scaled back, guilty perhaps of overpublishing into a category that has lost some of its lustre. Little, Brown, for instance, has cut its picture book list in half and is taking a harder look at every proposal that comes in, while other houses are releasing about one quarter fewer picture books this year. Booksellers and publishers don't always agree on the cause, but what is clear is slowing sales have forced publishers to rethink how they approach the category.

Cycle-somatic?

What's happening with picture books is by no means a new phenomenon. Doug Whiteman, president and publisher of the Penguin Young Readers Group, points out that there was a similar downturn in the early '90s, and in any event, it is not across the board. "We have not seen any decline in Jan Brett, Tomie dePaola or celebrity titles. What's been hurt is the 'midlist' picture book."

Consequently, Penguin is cutting back on its midlist books, reducing initial print runs for some and moving fewer hardcovers into paperback, while putting out hefty quantities of its big books. For example, the new edition of Watty Piper's The Little Engine That Could (Philomel), launched with a 300,000-copy first printing, and Paul McCartney's High in the Clouds (Dutton) had a 500,000-copy first run.

Publishers attribute the downturn to factors ranging from demographics to the war, cuts in library funding, the decline in independent bookstores and the death of the whole language movement. "To a certain extent it is cyclical," says Laura Godwin, v-p and publisher of Books for Young Readers at Henry Holt. "But it's partly a self-fulfilling prophecy. To the extent that sales are soft, publishers tend to pull back."

At Holt, the change has been gradual. Picture books, which were just over 50% of Holt's list four years ago, now comprise slightly less than half. "It's been a good thing," Godwin says. "We're going into areas we've never done before, like paperback original illustrated chapter books."

Megan Tingley, editor-in-chief of Little, Brown Books for Young Readers, doesn't blame cultural or economic factors or cite business cycles. "It's the same old song. There are too many books being published," she says. "We were routinely publishing 20—30 per season. In this new market we found we weren't getting the placement we wanted. Now we are aiming for a much tighter list. We need to publish fewer books better." Like Godwin at Holt, Tingley is trying to find a silver lining, by experimenting with lower-priced formats, such as paper-over-board.

George Nicholson, founder of Yearling Books and Delacorte Press and now an agent at Sterling Lord Literistic, concurs that the market is tough and demand has declined. "There's no way to sell an unusual picture book these days," he says, "unless it wins a medal or has a theme." Although he acknowledges the cyclical nature of publishing and points out that Shirley Temple wrote books for children at the height of her celebrity, Nicholson says, "By and large I'm turning down clients who want to write picture books."

Chicken or the Egg?

On the bookseller side, the picture book scene looks a bit rosier. Barnes & Noble has experienced growth in the category for each of the past three years and anticipates more in 2005—without cutting back on the number of titles it carries. "We're heavily promoting our books in the [children's] department and in the front of store," says B&N children's book buyer Pat Brigandi. Price, she admits, is important. "I like to give my customers value for their money."

But at Borders, publishers again come in for some heat. Buyer Ruta Drummond says there are too many picture books. "It's not enough to publish one back-to-school book—there are four or five of them," she says. As a result, Borders is maintaining its picture-book inventory level by buying deeper on key titles.

Complicating matters is the fact that publishers, at least according to Chauni Haslet, owner of All for Kids Books & Musicin Seattle, are supporting fewer titles. "If picture books aren't selling," she says, "it's because publishers have determined not to put money behind them. Some of the major publishers are putting all their nickels and dimes into one title and the other books are forgotten. They're not forgotten by us but it's harder for us to know about them."

Shirley Mullin, owner of Kids Ink in Indianapolis, Ind., appreciates having a breadth of picture books to choose from, especially picture books for older kids. She points to Jacqueline Woodson's Show Way(Penguin, Sept.), illustrated by Hudson Talbott, as "a great book to use with fourth and fifth graders studyingthe Civil War."

Still, she finds too much repetition in the marketplace, like sappy and sweet books for four- and five-year-olds. "How many ways can you say I love you?" she asks. "What we need are more Where the Wild Things Are. It's tough, fun and real."

Some houses have begun repositioning themselves to take advantage of the picture book pendulum's inevitable swing back up. Earlier this year, Random House lured editor Anne Schwartz from S&S to help grow its picture book list. While not exactly bullish, Random House Children's Books president and publisher Chip Gibson is committed to the category. "From day one in my time in children's books," he says, "I have been generously and consistently regaled with two great 'truths.' The first is that the children's business is cyclical. The second is that the picture book is now mired in the underperforming side of that cycle. Well, regardless of cycling, picture books are a vital part of our work, so we are improving and increasing our program."

Other houses are putting renewed energy into their book jackets. "You have one shot, and it's the cover," says Godwin at Holt. "It's like a movie poster. So: more foil, more embossing, more special effects." Candlewick president and publisher Karen Lotz concurs. "To make each book stand out you really have to work hard. The bells and whistles are about standing out at point of purchase."

Candlewick has continued to nurture its picture book sales. "We have been very fortunate in getting market share," Lotz says. "We have 20 new hardcovers each season. That's 30— 40 a year. I can't imagine a time when we wouldn't publish picture books with passion."

Fortunately, one thing that doesn't seem to be cyclical is passion.