Fiction usually rides high at BEA, but the mood this year may be conservative, as the presidential election threatens to suck up all the media oxygen. Overall, there are fewer big-name giveaways, but as many promising debuts as ever.

To find out which new fiction and nonfiction ARCs are most likely to fly, PW contacted five booksellers and asked for their reactions to more than 75 publisher pitches. Here's their shortlist of the top galleys worth grabbing at the show.

Debuts to WatchThe Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie SocietyMary Ann Shaffer and Annie Barrows (Dial, July)Pitch:Charing Cross Road meets Ella Minnow Pea in this literate and charming post-WWII epistolary novel about Brits of a certain age.Buzz: “Very clever and well-written,” says Betsy Burton. “It has history and some satire, and the two correspondents are in the book world.”Contact: Booth 1130 or CArtis@randomhouse.comThe Girl with the Dragon TattooStieg Larsson; trans. by Reg Keeland (Knopf, Sept.)Pitch: Bestselling European thriller probes the disappearance of one of Sweden's wealthiest daughters, 40 years later.Buzz: “It builds slowly, but is so engrossing one can't leave it alone until the end,” says Sheryl Cotleur. Burton: “The financial journalism and skullduggery angle is fascinating.”Contact: Booth 1130 or NLatimer@randomhouse.comThe GargoyleAndrew Davidson (Doubleday, Aug.)Pitch: Seven years in the making, a sweeping love story couched inside Dante's Inferno.Buzz: “Loved the dark tone. Surprisingly romantic!” says Sessalee Hensley. Cotleur: “Once I navigated the very startling beginning, I was enraptured. The brilliant characters' lives in the present are brought to flower by their connections to medieval times.”Contact: Booth 1130 or ARich@randomhouse.comThe Lace ReaderBrunonia Barry (Morrow, Aug.)Pitch: Set in Salem, Mass., the story of a family of women who can read the future in lace.Buzz: Much discussed at the ABA Winter Institute and picked by B&N's Hensley: “I'll read anything about Salem, Mass., and the idea of lace readers is intriguing.”Contact: Booth 1846, 1847 or Debbie.Stier@harpercollins.comNarrative Nonfiction
War Journal
Richard Engel (Simon & Schuster, June)
Pitch: A vivid, earthy memoir by the only TV reporter to cover the entire Iraq war, starting before the invasion.
Buzz: Stewart: “Engel's longevity in Iraq, his insider status (he speaks Arabic) and his coverage of the political and military fronts, as well as very personal accounts, will make it stand out.”
Contact: Booth 1624, 1625 or Wendy.Sheanin@simonandschuster.com
The Numerati
Stephen Baker (Houghton Mifflin, Sept.)
Pitch: An urgent look a how a global math elite is predicting and altering our behavior.
Buzz: Cotleur: “This feels timely and gripping.” Parsons: “Definitely another classic in the tradition of The Long Tail and The Wisdom of Crowds.
Contact: Booth 1612, 1613 or Lori_Glazer@hmco.com
Literary Events
A Mercy
Toni Morrison (Knopf, Nov.)
Pitch: The Nobel winner returns, with a novel set two centuries before Beloved, about a woman who casts off her daughter to save her.
Buzz: Cotleur: “I love this author passionately and was transported by the first paragraph. Burton: “I'm not expecting much because I didn't like Morrison's last few books.”
Contact: Booth 1130 or NLatimer@randomhouse.com
The Given Day
Dennis Lehane (Morrow, Sept.)
Pitch: Bestselling author's epic novel of two families, white and black, set in 1918 Boston captures the nation's political unrest.
Buzz: Brad Parsons: “Lehane's crossover into film and TV has expanded his readership.” Burton: “I'm a Lehane fan but was disappointed that this isn't a mystery. There's some interesting history, but it's predictable, which is a surprise coming from him.”
Contact: Booth 1846, 1847 or Debbie.Stier@harpercollins.com
Indignation
Phillip Roth (Houghton Mifflin, Sept.)
Pitch: Reigning literary lion's tale of a young man from Newark, N.J. who attends college in Ohio during the Korean war.
Buzz: Parsons: “I have a feeling this could be the galley to grab at BookExpo.” Burton: “Oh, Roth. He hates women, so I hate him!”
Contact: Booth 1612, 1613 or LoriGlazer@hmco.com
Returning Authors
Goldengrove
Francine Prose (HarperCollins, Sept.)
Pitch: A wrenching story about adolescence, family and first love narrated by a young girl, with echoes of Vertigo and Pygmalion.
Buzz: Burton: “Her last two nonfiction books have gotten a lot of buzz. I think she's ready to break out.”
Contact: Booth 1846, 1847 or Kathy.Smith@harpercollins.com
Serena
Ron Rash (Ecco, Oct.)
Pitch: Prizewinning author's tale set in 1929 Appalachia of a marriage that unravels as a woman reckons with her husband's illegitimate child.
Buzz: Nancy Stewart: “I've been a fan of Rash's since One Foot in Eden. His work tends to focus on family conflicts, jealousies and retribution, with well-drawn characters.”
Contact: Booth 1846, 1847 or Michael.McKenzie@harpercollins.com
The 19th Wife
David Ebershoff (Random, Aug.)
Pitch: Fictionalized diary of the 19th wife of Mormon founder Brigham Young, crossed with a contemporary mystery.
Buzz: Stewart: “I was drawn in from the first page. The subject could hardly be more timely.”
Contact: Booth 1130 or CSchneider@randomhouse.com
To Catch the Lightning
Alan Cheuse (Sourcebooks, Oct.)
Pitch: NPR commentator's fictional exploration of the intertwined fates of frontier photographer Edward Curtis and the American Indian.
Buzz: Burton: “Cheuse is a wonderful writer and the history is a real draw, but I didn't find Curtis very likable.”
Contact: Booth 2413 or Heather.Moore@Sourcebooks.com
Memoir
Acedia & Me
Kathleen Norris (Riverhead, Sept.)
Pitch: Memoir of the author's struggle with acedia (aka sloth) offers keen insights into cultural paralysis and renewal.
Buzz: Hensley: “I'll read anything Norris writes.”
Contact: Booth 2300 or Heidi.Graynor@us.penguingroup.com
The Night of the Gun: A Reporter Investigates the Darkest Story of His Life. His Own.
David Carr (Simon & Schuster, Sept.)
Pitch:New York Times columnist Carr on his years as a crack addict, in recovery, as a cancer patient and a single parent.
Buzz: Parsons: “Could appeal to fans of A Million Little Pieces, Tweak and Beautiful Boy. Carr plays with his own harrowing memories and recollections of those affected by his addiction.”
Contact: Booth 1624, 1625 or Wendy.Sheanin@simonandschuster.com
We Bought a Zoo: The Amazing True Story of a Young Family, One Broken-Down Zoo and the 200 Wild Animals that Changed Their Lives Forever
Benjamin Mee (Weinstein Books, Sept.)
Pitch: See subtitle. Set in England.
Buzz: Cotleur: “Simply sounds wonderful. My bookseller's antenna is vibrating.”
Contact: Booth 1724 or Katie.Finch@weinsteinco.com

With thanks to the following booksellers:
Betsy Burton, owner, The King's English, Salt Lake City, Utah

Sheryl Cotleur, buying director, Book Passage, Corte Madera, Calif.

Sessalee Hensley, fiction buyer, Barnes & Noble

Brad Parsons, fiction editor, Amazon.com

Nancy Stewart, senior product manager, Ingram Book Group