Bestsellers '08

There were few bright notes in the book business last year—making it no different than just about any other business—and the news in the final months was particularly dismal (ditto), with consolidations, layoffs, salary freezes, title cutbacks, etc. Most retailers, as expected, found little relief in the holiday season. As a cold January rolls in and the country awaits a new administration in Washington, there is much trepidation; the fate of Borders, for example, is being closely watched. In last week's PW, former Random House CE0 Peter Olson predicted that 2009 would be “even bleaker.” But enough about Bleak House; '08 did have its bestseller successes, although, for the most part, they were fleeting.

It was good news, bad news on the bestseller front. More books than ever made it onto PW's four weekly charts in 2008—563, compared to 561 in 2007; five years ago, in 2004, the number was 421. But more books making a first landing, especially in hardcover fiction and mass market, had runs of one or two weeks—42% for fiction and 40% for mass market. Over the course of 2008, only nine fiction titles and seven mass markets had double-digit runs.

The hardcover nonfiction numbers were better. While a larger number of books achieved stays of one or two weeks—41% of the record 123 books that appeared on the nonfiction lists—an impressive 25 nonfiction bestsellers had double-digit runs.

As usual, the trade paperback category boasts the longest tenures. This year, 50% of the trade bestsellers had runs of 10 weeks or more, compared to 37% in 2007.

First fiction fared better in 2008 than in 2007— two debut adult titles topped the list of the year's longest-running novels. Veteran fiction bestselling authors had shorter stays on the weekly lists in 2008; John Grisham was the only one in this group who made it to 15 weeks—nice, but nowhere near the 41 weeks in 1991 for The Firm, his first bestseller.

And, as always, the publishing conglomerates dominated the bestseller charts. In 2008, six houses—Random House, Simon & Schuster, Penguin USA, Hachette, HarperCollins and Macmillan—controlled about 85% of all the slots on the weekly hardcover lists and 80% of all paperback slots. A key reason for this dominance is that it takes a lot of dollars and muscle to make a bestseller. Still, a new player, Windblown Media, managed to make it to the top of the charts with The Shack; this self-published book (with distribution help from Hyperion) enjoyed a 37-week run (and still counting) on the trade paperback list.

Shifting Sands

There were also significant gains and losses in publishers' shares of bestseller positions. Still in the lead on the hardcover charts is Random House Inc., with ownership of 21.7% of hardcover bestseller real estate in 2008. But over the last two years, RH has lost 6.7% of its share. Ten years ago, the house's hardcover share was a whopping 43%. RH did not fare well on the paperback lists, either, losing 6.2% in the past year. Its Vintage imprint had the biggest drop in number of titles and weeks on the list. In 2008, it had four bestsellers with a total of 17 weeks on the list; in 2007 it had 10 bestsellers with a total of 102 weeks.

On the paperback side, Penguin USA had the most impressive performance—32.5% of all paperback slots, a gain of more than 8% in just one year. Back in 1998, its paperback share was about 15%. In 2008, Penguin had five of the 13 longest-running trade paperback bestsellers (see page 23), with a total of 205 weeks on the 2008 charts; that adds up to 27% of all available slots on the weekly trade paper lists. Two of its titles—Eat, Pray, Love and Three Cups of Tea— were the only two books last year on the charts every week in 2008.

List Toppers

Eighty titles enjoyed time at the top of the four weekly charts; 70 of those were first-timers. That figure breaks the 2007 record of 68 new books reaching #1. But the amount of time a book gets to bask on the highest rung keeps getting shorter, especially in hardcover fiction and mass market. John Grisham's The Appeal had the longest run; it was in the top spot with four weeks, followed by three weeks each for Jodi Picoult's Change of Heart and Janet Evanovich's Fearless Fourteen. In fiction, bestsellers tend to hit the top spot in their first week on sale—35 novels did so in 2008. But only a handful had any traction—26 of those stayed at #1 for just a week.

Nonfiction had only two bestsellers with double-digit runs. Rhonda Byrne's The Secret was #1 for 10 weeks in 2008, adding to its 29 weeks in the lead position in 2007. Randy Pausch's The Last Lecture led the nonfiction 2008 list for 27 weeks, a position it held through the end of the holiday selling season. David Sedaris's When You Are Engulfed in Flames was in the lead for two weeks; all other nonfiction top-sellers had just a one-week shot.

The longest run in mass market (where 26 titles got to the top spot) was five weeks; three books achieved that—David Baldacci's Simple Genius, John Grisham's Playing for Pizza and Janet Evanovich's Lean Mean Thirteen. For the rest of the bestsellers, it was a quick one- (12 titles), two- (nine titles) or three-week stay (two titles).

Trade paperback's lead spot was dominated by three books: William P. Young's The Shack, with 28 weeks in 2008 (and still there in early 2009); Eckhart Tolle's A New Earth, with 18 weeks (it was Oprah's 61st book club pick); and Elizabeth Gilbert's Eat, Pray, Love, with five weeks (it was #1 11 times in 2007).

List Makers

In both fiction and mass market, veteran players dominated the weekly charts, with many placing multiple books on the lists.Dominating the mass market list were the usual suspects—Nora Roberts, James Patterson and Debbie Macomber, with a combined 28 books and 120 weeks on the 2008 lists, accounting for more than 15% of all available mass market slots. At least a dozen other authors had three or more books on the weekly charts. And in a list dominated by romance (more paranormals than ever) and mysteries, an interesting statistic emerged—more than 80 of the authors were female; 45 were men.

In a presidential election year, it's no surprise that many political tomes hit the lists—particularly those with the name Obama in the title. It was also a good year for bestsellers by and about celebs, including books by Valerie Bertinelli, Jenny McCarthy, Robert Wagner, Barbara Walters, Julie Andrews, Steve Martin and Chelsea Handler. Self-help books continued to be popular, with Drs. Michael Roizen and Mehmet Oz enjoying two bestsellers last year.

While bestsellers command the most attention in publishing and from the media, it's important to note that they make up only about 1% of all books published. That won't change in the foreseeable future, no matter what the format—print or digital. And that's what makes the business so interesting.