Probable Tomorrows

In an aptly titled examination of the scientific and technological development that will shape the next two decades, futurists Cetron and Davies (Crystal Globe, etc.) present a well-reasoned and optimistic forecast. Although individual experts are likely to disagree with details of the authors' predictions, few would argue about its breadth of coverage and comfortable tone. High technology and complex science are presented in clear, lively prose and connected to the facts and issues of everyday life. The book's nine chapters on key fields (information, communication, materials science, nanotechnology, transportation, aerospace, energy, environment and medicine) include speculation as well as forecasts; but the authors clearly distinguish among what they view as probable, possible or unlikely developments. The capstone of the book is its appendix, which includes a consensus view of the future from a 1996 George Washington University Delphi survey, a list of contributors to that survey, a detailed response to that survey by Forecasting International (Cetron's company) and a time line of technological evolution. While not quite a crystal ball, this book likely does depict the future, albeit through dark glass. (June)