The Arithmetic of Life

Do business meetings save more time than they waste? Can some gamblers expect to win more than they lose? On average, will you save or lose time by speeding? And what are your niece's chances of becoming what she wants to be when she grows up? Shaffner shows readers how to find answers to these and other questions of statistics, probability, simple economics and applied mathematics in this set of 38 linked essays aimed at the innumerate potential readers Shaffner nicknames ""Math Refugees."" The author explains how the cumulative ""chance of getting caught"" makes crime a bad career choice. He also shows how an exceptionally talented worker can damage a business: his or her own work may raise total productivity, but disgruntled co-workers who quarrel and slack off can cause a net loss. Shaffner's writing is usually clever and clear: many chapters rely on anecdotes, most of which feature prudent Cecilia Sharpe, unwise Reginald DeNiall and their families. (Sixteen-year-old Billy Ray DeNiall can expect his new cigarette habit to cost him, over his lifetime, $340,000.) Shaffner perhaps exceeds his brief in a number of essays with ethical, political and metaphysical agendas. His applied math ""proves,"" for example, that government deficits are immoral, that Earth has exceeded sustainable population levels and that life after death is more likely than not. Whatever one thinks of these propositions, it's odd to see them presented as if they were analytic truths like the law of averages. Most of Shaffner's book simply explains and applies math for laypeople, however, and it's highly probable that many readers will learn from it. Agent, Jane Dystel. (Sept.)