THE RECKONING: Iraq and the Legacy of Saddam Hussein

A journalist who has long covered the Middle East, Mackey destroys the myth that toppling Saddam Hussein will solve Iraq's problems—and America's. She clearly traces the complex and diverse history of the country from its biblical roots to the present day. The most salient feature of the country, she argues strongly, is its fragility: Iraq is a patchwork of peoples (both Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims, as well as Kurds) that hangs together by a thread. Without addressing how these peoples can form a national identity, the author claims, a post-Saddam Iraq could be worse than the Balkans. But even though much of the book centers on Iraq's long history, it is the author's account of the past 40 years that is the most instructive. While much of the information about Saddam has been presented elsewhere, Mackey summarizes his career well: his seizure of power, with its emphasis on the country's Arab roots, came after a long time of local chaos, and his rule of terror has kept him in charge but led to wars that impoverished his people. "Like Baghdad at the end of the Gulf War, Iraq itself is a body whose skin is intact but whose bones are broken." Mackey's last chapter is her most chilling. If there is no focus on what will come after Saddam, she says, then Iraq's future—the disintegration of the country into separate warring cantons—will be a nightmare, both for its people and for the United States. With the Bush administration focusing on Iraq as the next step in its war against terrorism, this book sounds an important cautionary note. (May)

Forecast:Given its timeliness, this should receive serious review and media attention, and should draw handsome sales.