Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence

Mazur (Euclid in the Rainforest), professor emeritus of mathematics at Marlboro College, succinctly tackles the math behind phenomena of chance and happenstance. He begins with a rundown of generic categories of coincidences—such as lost and found objects, precisely timed encounters, dreams that come true, and gambling luck or misfortune—illustrating each with surprising examples. Over the remainder of the book Mazur analyses the likelihood of these and other moments of chance, including the birthday problem—how many people must be in a room to have a 50% chance that two share a birthday—and the monkey question, which addresses whether a monkey randomly hitting keys would type all of Shakespeare’s works if given enough time. He explains the tools required for such analyses—the theories of large numbers, weak numbers, probability, and frequency distribution—in accessible language, complemented by sophisticated equations and graphics. Mazur also explores larger issues affected by events with small probabilities, among them risk in financial markets and the application of probability theory to DNA evidence. His discussion of DNA evidence is provocative, raising questions about the process. Mazur’s thoughtful tour reveals the explanatory power of probability theory in the larger world. (Apr.)