Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections, Updated Edition

Campbell (Getting It Wrong), a professor of communication at American University, offers a lively tour through past polling failures of American presidential elections, updated since its original 2020 publication with a new chapter on the that year’s election, which was polling’s worst performance in 40 years. Polls at the time were near unanimous in overestimating Joe Biden’s performance against incumbent Donald Trump, predicting an eight-to-12-point lead for the Democrat, but Biden won by a much smaller margin. Campbell relates the ensuing drama with panache (“For a time, Election Night unspooled as a strange replay of 2016”) while neatly evaluating a dizzying number of theories for the misfire (including polls’ failure to adjust sample data for respondents who were unlikely to vote, journalists’ embrace of the polls over reporting, the number of late-deciding voters, dishonest answers from respondents, sample errors, and fewer responses from Republicans). Despite the surfeit of ways polling can be rendered useless and inaccurate (which is likewise attested to in the book’s previously published sections on historical polling mishaps), Campbell makes a strong case for the continued civic value of polling, arguing for instance that polls gin up public interest during election season. The result is an entertaining and informative peek into a recently much-maligned aspect of U.S. elections. (Feb.)