Thirteen Keys to the Presiden

This intriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods. Examining the circumstances surrounding past elections, Lichtman and DeCell disclose a remarkably consistent set of factors or ``keys,'' which, they believe, can accurately predict outcomes. Describing how the keys were utilized in 1984 and '88, the authors apply the methodology to every presidential election from 1860 on, demonstrating how the same keys appear to account for the major themes and events of 33 consecutive elections. They also discuss misconceptions of presidential politics that their system brings into focus. Lichtman is a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C.; DeCell is an editor at Washingtonian magazine. (Mar.)