The Next War: Third Edition

Weinberger, secretary of defense for most of the Reagan years, collaborates with Schweizer, president of the James Madison Institute, to present five possible near-future scenarios in which the U.S. goes to war. Scenario one is based on a North Korean invasion of South Korea that ends in stalemate after a limited nuclear exchange. Number two casts Iran as a rogue state using ballistic missiles to alter the Middle East's balance of power. The third scenario postulates a radical Mexican government scapegoating the U.S. as the source of its country's woes. A fourth describes the conquest of Europe by a resurgent Russia--again with the aid of nuclear weapons. In scenario five, the U.S. and Japan reignite the Pacific War of 1941-1945, this time using ""cyberstrikes"" against information systems, chemical warfare and a nuclear exchange. The authors tell their stories through the eyes of fictional participants. This format, familiar to readers of techno-thrillers, is an effective framework for dramatizing a set of pessimistic conclusions. Because of America's reduction of its conventional armed forces and its failure to build a missile defense system, none of the scenarios have outcomes more positive than stalemate achieved at high cost. The authors' lament for such a missile system and for the armed forces of the past won't convince those who believe that the dominant modes of future conflict will be terrorism and guerrilla war, however. Weinberger and Schweizer nevertheless make a case deserving serious consideration by citizens and policy-makers alike. (Nov.)