How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To

In this smart study, Yates (The Math of Life and Death), a mathematician at the University of Bath, explores the cognitive biases that lead to incorrect predictions. Intuition often conflicts with reality, he explains, suggesting that humans have a linearity bias, or “propensity to believe that things will stay constant or continue at a consistent rate.” He contends this bias contributed to the delayed uptake of antiviral measures as Covid-19 cases ticked upward in early 2020, noting a study that found subjects who underestimated the speed of exponential growth were less likely to practice social distancing. Elsewhere, Yates illustrates how people misunderstand probability by discussing the 1967 case of a man who appeared to have predicted a real-life plane crash in a dream. Drawing on research about dream frequency, Yates estimates that “we might expect over 66,000” such dreams across the world in the month before a crash, suggesting that what appeared to be too accurate to be a coincidence was actually to be expected. The survey of the mind’s biases intrigues, and the author excels at demonstrating their real-world effects, as when he posits that the tendency to assume things will always be “just the way they are now” contributes to many people’s reluctance to observe hurricane evacuation orders and other precautions. It’s a safe bet that readers will take to this. (Oct.)