The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World

Physicist Palmer delivers a challenging but rewarding look at how uncertainty helps scientists make sense of the world. Much of the work draws on “the science of chaos,” which Palmer writes has “impacted... almost all branches of science: not only astronomy, meteorology, and ecology, but chemistry, engineering, biology, and social science.” Regarding the math and science of weather forecasting models, which have “several billion variables,” Palmer considers whether the “same ensemble techniques that have transformed weather and climate prediction” could also make waves in economics, such as by potentially allowing economists to forecast market shifts and crashes. Elsewhere, he tackles the uncertainty in pandemics (and explains how Covid prediction models work), investigates how uncertainty might help answer questions about dark matter and energy, and closes with a provocative account of how consciousness arises, in which he suggests that “to be conscious of an object is to be aware that the object has an existence independent of the rest of the world.” Despite the complexity of his arguments, the author succeeds at bringing complicated theories within reach of those who have a basic familiarity with physics. Science-minded readers, take note. (Oct.)