Denis Johnson is the clear frontrunner to go home with the National Book Award in fiction next week for his fat Vietnam War novel Tree of Smoke (Farrar, Straus & Giroux), at least according to readers responding to PW's Betting on Books online poll. After one week of voting, Johnson is favored to win by 61%, while debut novelist Joshua Ferris is running a far distant second with just over 16% saying he'll snag the honor for his tale of office life, Then We Came to the End (Little, Brown).

In nonfiction, PW readers are more closely split, with 32% betting on the world's most famous atheist, Christopher Hitchens, to win for his bestseller God is Not Great (Twelve) and 30% saying the honor will go to Haitian immigrant Edwidge Danticat for the family memoir Brother, I'm Dying (Knopf).

In the young people's literature category, PW readers have the competition coming down to two finalists, with Sherman Alexie getting 41% of the votes for The Absolutely True Diary of a Part-Time Indian (Little, Brown) and Brian Selznick receiving 38% for The Invention of Hugo Cabret (Scholastic).

As for poetry, Robert Hass is the favorite for Time and Materials (Ecco), while the other four finalists are closely split, with each receiving between 12% and 19% of the votes.

If these predictions don't sound right to you--or even if they do--cast your vote for who will be honored on Nov. 14. Readers who correctly predict all four winners will be entered into a drawing to receive a free one-year subscription to PW.