With the New York Comic-Con about to start, the third annual ICv2 Graphic Novel Conference kicked off the show with its annual white paper on the category delivered by Milton Griepp, CEO of ICv2, a pop culture trade news website. The message was continued strong sales growth for the graphic novel category. In 2007 graphic novel sales in the U.S. and Canada were $375 million, a 12% rise from 2006 and quintuple the sales number from 2001.

Although this rapid and continuing growth has led the way to expanded graphic novel sections in bookstores and comics shops, Griepp cautioned that growth has slowed a bit, and the finite level of shelving space is beginning to be a factor. The number of titles in all genres continues to grow. In 2007 there were 3,391 graphic novels published. The number of manga titles (1,513) was up 25% and American genre comics, encompassing superheroes and other traditional genres (1,268), was up 31%. Fiction and reality—the "comics lit" or literary category—was up 2% (272) and kid's comics (145) were almost unchanged with a 1% increase. Humor rose 24% (83).

Leading the way in sales were such blockbuster titles as Naruto, Heroes, the comics adaptation of Stephen King's Dark Tower and backlist bestsellers 300 and Watchmen. Other trends included the "the Cartoon Network Effect"—the ability of the kids TV network to drive sales—The DVD boom and video game tie-ins. Mainstream prose novelists like King and Laurell K. Hamilton crossing over to comics, also generated sales success. But while sales remain strong for established titles, "at the retail level there is concern about books in the bottom 2/3rds of the list.," Griepp reported. Retailers are beginning to become much more selective about what lines to carry, both in manga and American comics.

"We’ve been hearing major chain buyers skipping titles," said Griepp. "Major buyers who would take everything in the past are now picking and choosing." Manga sales in particular have flattened, perhaps in response to the increased number of titles available. The slowed growth was particularly evident in comics specialty shops, where retailers who are unfamiliar with the category can be challenged by the sheer number of manga titles. That trend shows no sign of slowing with a projected 14% rise in the number of manga titles likely to be offered in 2008.

In past years graphic novel sales in the bookstore market grew much faster than in comics specialty stores, but in 2007 both channels grew at the same pace. In addition, comics periodical sales enjoyed a strong year in 2007, led by such event comics as Marvel's crossover event series Civil War, representing $330 million in retail sales. Library sales or graphic novels also remain steady, representing 10-15% of the sales through the bookstore channel.

In other projections for 2008, Griepp pointed to forthcoming films Wanted, Hellboy 2, The Dark Knight, The Incredible Hulk and Iron Man, noting that he expects movie tie-in graphic novels to do very well in 2008.

Publishers at the conference confirmed that the battle for limited shelf space — and limited consumer dollars in an economically challenged environment — remain concerns. "we noticed this a few years ago and cut our line in half," said Top Cow President Mathew Hawkins. Dark Horse v-p of business development Michael Martens said it is a trend that they have noted over the past year as well.

Taking questions from the audience, the impact of a possible recession was brought up. Traditionally comics have done very well in tough economic times, but during previous economic reversals comics were mostly sold in cheap periodical form. "I would expect some impact on graphic novels by price," Griepp told the conference audience of about 200 attendees. "A $75 book will be more affected than a $7.95 Shonen Jump title. But the numbers give me hope that unless there's an economic extreme, we’ll probably be up in this market."

Griepp also pointed to the increasing strength of the graphic novel backlist and the expanded graphic novel offerings of traditional book publishers. Despite the slight flattening of sales and increased concerns over the lower selling titles, the prevailing feeling among publishers and comics professionals at the conference was that the category still has room to grow.