The final publishing industry sales estimates from the Association of American Publishers for 2023 are in, and indicate that sales in the year fell 0.8% from 2022, to $29.9 billion. This year marks a shift in AAP's reporting, as it's the first time the organization has used the data analytics firm Industry Insight, Inc, to develop its final estimates. The firm has made some adjustments to earlier sales totals, and as a result, sales going back to 2019 were adjusted upward for every year except 2021.

While the new data presents a bigger industry, the overall trends remain the same—book publishing is a low-growth business. With the revised figures, sales increased 6.1% between 2019 and 2023—a decent performance, but below the overall inflation rate. Looking at 2023 in particular, one notable trend is that sales did much better in terms of dollars than in terms of units. While dollar sales fell by only 0.8%, unit sales were down 5.7%, to 3.05 billion units sold—a result that points to higher net book prices in 2023.

The AAP calculates its average net unit price (ANUP) by dividing unit sales by dollar sales; its calculus doesn’t represent the average price a consumer pays for a book but, rather, what publishers are charging their accounts, including booksellers and other book vendors. Using that formula, the report found that the ANUP rose by an average of 7% across all trade formats in 2023 the biggest gain since 2020, when the ANUP rose 8.1%. Dollar sales typically outperform unit growth, but last year’s gap between dollar sales and unit sales was much wider than in 2022.

Breaking Down the Numbers

Among the major categories, total dollar sales in 2023 fell 1.4% in the trade segment, to an estimated $18.7 billion, and trade unit sales fell 8.1%. The three other major categories had minor sales increases: higher education revenue increased by 1.5%, to $3.9 billion, and sales of professional books also rose 1.5%, to $1.7 billion. Revenue in the Pre-K–12 education segment increased 0.3%, to $5.2 billion. Sales at university presses fell 9.8%, to about $600 million.

Within trade, the religious press segment had the best performance, with sales up 6.7%, to $1.46 billion. Sales of adult fiction slipped 1.0%, to $6.19 billion, but adult nonfiction sales increased 2.6%, to $6.05 billion. The children’s/young adult nonfiction category had the toughest year, with sales falling almost 18%, to $902 million. Sales of children’s/YA books overall dropped 5.8%, to $4.11 billion.

The report also highlights some notable changes in sales by format in the trade area. Sales of digital audiobooks jumped 18.2%, while e-book sales rose 2%. As a number of industry members have predicted, sales of digital audio are poised to pass e-book sales: last year, digital audio sales were $2.07 billion, compared to $2.14 billion for e-books. In total, the two digital formats accounted for 22.5% of trade sales last year, compared to 20.3% in 2022—a rise accounted for mostly by digital audio.

In the two major print formats, hardcover sales increased 5.1% as price increases helped to offset a 3% decline in unit sales. Trade paperback sales fell 2.9%, with unit sales off 8%. Mass market paperback sales continued their steady decline, dropping 20.3%, to $528 million, accounting for just 2.8% of trade sales.

In sales by channel, online retail sales bounced back after two down years, largely due to Amazon's move to trim orders as it sold through existing inventory. Sales through online outlets rose 10.7%, to $8.47 billion, last year, accounting for 45.3% of trade sales compared to 40.3% in 2022. Despite the improvement in online sales, physical retailers held their own, with sales inching ahead 0.4%, to $4.20 billion.

Sales through all other channels were down in the year. Sales through intermediaries (largely comprising wholesalers) fell 11.2%, to $4.10 billion, and could reflect softer sales to libraries. Export sales declined 11.6%, to just over $1 billion, marking the category’s lowest total in at least five years. Direct sales—which include sales to school districts, colleges, and other educational establishments—fell nearly 43%, to $546 million, and are down 58% since sales were just under $1.30 billion in 2019.

The Impact of Inclusive Access

This year’s report also provides a look at how inclusive access/equitable access (IA/EA) programs, through which college students can pay for their course materials as part of tuition or other fees, are impacting publishing sales. IA/EA sales in the higher education market jumped 24.1% in 2023, to $1.26 billion, almost equal to the sale of print books, which fell 6.5% last year. Digital non-inclusive access sales fell 1.2%, but still represented the biggest format in higher education, netting sales of $2.13 billion. (Earlier this summer, college publishers and college stores were successful in delaying a proposed rule change by the Department of Education that could have severely damaged the growth of IA/EA programs.)

While Industry Insight brought new analysis in developing the final estimates, the overall methodology remained the same: the final figures are based on sales from publishers who report revenue to the AAP’s StatShot program—which totaled $13.6 billion this year—with estimates provided for non-reporting companies. Industry Insight estimated the outstanding revenue through extrapolation, market modeling, and research using such sources as Bowker, Circana BookScan, data from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Census Bureau, and, apparently, Publishers Weekly.