AAP issued its June report last month, showing religion down by 22% in June and more than 7% for the year to date. An informal survey by RBL of publishers in the category turned up hopeful signs but admissions that 2010 has not been a great year thus far.

Dwight Baker, president of Baker Publishing Group, expressed reservations about the usefulness of the data (Baker is one of many Christian publishers that does not report sales to AAP) and said, “Our sales have been strong since spring and we’re projecting a 3% increase for this holiday season.” But, he added, “retailers are saying that fall titles for the Christian category are not strong enough to reverse the attrition of former bestsellers” such as Baker’s own 90 Minutes in Heaven.

Said Michael Hyatt, chairman of the board and CEO of Thomas Nelson, which does report to AAP, “We were down more than 8% for June, but we are up single digits for the calendar year. We definitely saw a slowdown in demand—particularly replenishment—in June, and that continued through July and early August. We are beginning to see signs of life, but even that is fragile. I think the September results will tell us a lot about what we can expect for the rest of the year.”

Jonathan Merkh, publisher for S&S’s Howard Books imprint, said, “I can tell you that Howard is not separated out when S&S sends its info to AAP.” Expressing a common frustration, he said, “I have yet to see any organization have any accurate accounting on the sales of religious or Christian books.”

Joe Durepos, executive editor of trade acquisitions at Catholic publisher Loyola Press, said, “[Those numbers are] about as reliable as any publishing reporting is. We hope it indicates market movement, but we seldom rely on this data to make important decisions. As a mission-based publisher, we measure results in ways beyond those of traditional publishing metrics.” He added, “Our e-book sales are climbing every month and if the trend holds, we will see substantial growth in the near future.” (Loyola does not report to AAP.)

Munro Magruder, associate publisher at New World Library, which publishes general spirituality and Eastern religion as well as books in other categories, told RBL sales were down from last year, but “in the first two quarters of 2009 we shipped three new religion titles versus only one new title shipped in the first two quarters of 2010. Next month we ship two new religion titles, which we expect to be major sellers in the last four months of 2010. So I'm guessing our sales in religion in 2010 will be even with or slightly better than 2009.” NWL is an AAP member, but does not report sales.

Rolf Zettersten, publisher of the FaithWords and Center Street imprints, noted that parent Hachette does not break out FaithWords data and said, “We can’t draw any conclusions about 2010 until November. We’ve loaded releases of this year’s major titles into the final five months of the year. The first printings and initial sell-ins are running ahead of our forecasts, but we’ll have to wait and see how sell-through goes.”

Zettersten noted, “The first half of 2010 was relatively quiet in the religion market. That may have been due to the economy, but it’s also probably reflective of the fact that there have been no frontlist religion blockbusters this year.”

For a detailed look at the famously difficult task of generating accurate sales data in the category, see “Counting on Data: What Religion Sales Numbers Say, and Don’t” (PW Religion Update, Aug. 16).