Predictions can be dangerous, as every prognosticator or would-be seer knows. When you're right, you appear to be omniscient -- or at least very, very wise -- but when you're wrong, your clairvoyance stock plummets. Luckily for PW Religion Update, there are brave souls willing to venture educated guesses as to what the early years of the next century might hold for religion and for religion publishing. The guesses of our prognosticators are educated indeed -- they represent some of the finest minds in the field of religion and in the industry of publishing.
Although the 20th century has been a challenging one for religion -- one in which its irrelevance or obsolescence has repeatedly been declared -- the past ten or fifteen years have demonstrated in very concrete ways the strength of the religious impulse. The bottom-line evidence of book sales has spoken of a continuing spiritual hunger, albeit one that has taken on new shapes and names.
As we enter the 21st century, will organized religion survive, perhaps even become more vital than ever? What will be the key issues facing religion professionals in the next five to 10 years? What will be the role of religion publishers in addressing contemporary challenges and opportunities? These are some of the questions we posed to our panel of distinguished experts.
MARTIN MARTY
Seeking More Community
The wide-ranging "seeker spirituality" that has dominated the religious landscape in the decades leading up to the year 2000 will find some moorings and anchor itself during the first years of the new millennium, predicts Martin Marty, professor emeritus at the University of Chicago Divinity School and author of close to 60 books on American religion. Marty believes that all of those people who say they're spiritual but not religious, who encounter the Divine while meditating or at weekend retreats and who find their "bibles" in the spirituality section at Barnes & Noble are going to start seeking community. "As they mature, they'll find that not all wisdom is born within," says Marty, who is also a Lutheran minister.
This turn away from hyper-individualism and toward community already is happening. "Free-flowing individualists" like Marianne Williamson and Conversations with God author Neale Donald Walsch still appeal to many seekers, but they are being overshadowed by writers such as Kathleen Norris and Anne Lamott, who are connected -- if only loosely -- to a faith tradition. "These are people who 'give the church a chance,' although in nontraditional ways," notes Marty. Joining the spiritual writing by these more "moored" writers will be many serious trade books reflecting the widening conversation between science and religion in areas such as cosmology, evolution and the brain, according to Marty.
He also envisions a spiritual "desert" or "wilderness" created by the triumph of the market and economic globalization. "The market has simply won," he says. "But it isn't feeding the soul." To respond to the spiritual devastation created by the omnipresence of market values and thinking, Marty urges deeper philosophical and theological reflection. He hopes authors will address such issues as stewardship, mission and the gap between the rich and poor. "But it will be fatal if it's done in a preachy style. It has to be done by people who've been through it." -- Heidi Schlumpf
ELLEN FRANKEL
Recovering Women's Voices
Frankel, CEO and editor-in-chief of the Jewish Publication Society and the author of eight books (most recently, The Illustrated Hebrew Bible, Stewart, Tabori & Chang, 1999), notes that the dawn of a new millennium is a nonissue for Jewish publishers, since Judaism follows a different calendar. She d s, however, identify several major trends for the next decade.
Frankel predicts that as individuals continue to explore their inner religious lives, they will begin rereading classic Jewish texts to ground their personal searches. She says that spirituality, the hot topic of the last decade, will evolve into an interest in classic texts like the Bible, biblical commentaries and the Zohar," which articulates the systematic theology of Kabbalah. JPS will publish the first two volumes of a projected 10“15-volume translation by Daniel Matt of the Zohar in 2002.
Frankel foresees a corollary move "from individualism to communitarianism. There will be more public dialogue on achieving a balance between entitlement, which is about individual rights, and responsibility, which is about obligation to community." In publishing, Frankel says this will translate into more books on religious ethics.
Frankel -- JPS's first female CEO -- describes the "project of the '90s" as recovering the lost voices of women in Judaism. She expects the focus to shift to exploring gender as a lens through which to read religious texts and practice. "There may be an integration of folklore and social history with legal texts in dictating how we practice Judaism," she says. Publishers may pay more attention to women's prayers, memoirs and autobiography.
As the last survivors of the Holocaust who are recording their experiences die, she thinks the focus of Holocaust writing will shift from memorialization to an evaluation of what occurred. "If we take a long view of Jewish history," says Frankel, "the most creative periods of Jewish writing emerged after national catastrophes: the prayer book after the destruction of the First Temple in Jerusalem; the Mishnah and Talmud after the destruction of the Second Temple, and Kabbalah after the expulsion from Spain." -- Rahel Musleah
ERIC MAJOR
A Quieter Faith Emerges
Come the millennium, I think the religious fervor will quiet down," says Eric Major, head of Doubleday's religious publishing program since 1996 and appointed publisher of the newly combined Doubleday and WaterBrook units "It's been at such a high pitch for so long that it can't maintain such a high level, and I see a much quieter faith emerging," he adds. He sees a growing hunger for the richness offered by the liturgy: "Traditional churches are finding more people structuring their faith." Building on his predictions, Major offered three scenarios for religion publishing in the next few years.
"The Catholic market is beginning to emerge again. We'll see both conservative and liberal wings becoming more book conscious," he says. As proof, he notes that sales of the catechism and the New Jerusalem Bible continue to be steady and strong.
"You'll see a continuing appeal of Buddhism, Islam and, in particular, a growing interest in Judaism," Major continues. "I think the non-Christian faiths will grow in America, and there will be market appeal for books about them." Doubleday plans more Buddhist books, building on backlist titles like Thich Nhat Hanh's classic, Zen Keys: A Guide to Zen Practice.
"The third trend is the continuing growth of the CBA market," adds Major. WaterBrook, was launched in 1997 to compete with the Christian publishers. Says Major, "We continue to have success now in that market, publishing out of New York, which I think surprised a lot of people." He adds, "The secret is integrity. You have to be known to have integrity in that market -- they value it over everything else. And that is not only how you conduct yourself, but also what is in the books you publish."
-- Theola S. Labbé
ROLF ZETTERSTEN
Readers Need Relevant Answers
What's the link between latter-day horrors like the Columbine shootings and a growing interest in religion and spirituality in American culture? Nelson publisher Rolf Zettersten cites a cause-and-effect relationship he thinks will continue well into the next century. "It seems that our sophisticated culture has not dealt with some of the most basic issues, and in fact, things seem to be getting worse. That has caused people to turn to God and spirituality, and provided an opportunity for religious publishers."
But, he adds, "The answers have to be relevant. We ask questions like, 'What d s the Bible have to say about the violence that we're seeing? The erosion of values? The character issues?' We look for authors who have a thoughtful and relevant voice." Zettersten cites Larry Burkett's Crisis Control for 2000 and Beyond: Boom or Bust (Nov. 1999) as one example of a book intended to allay fears and give coping strategies for potential Y2K problems by bringing a spiritual component into the discussion.
Zettersten sees ebbs and flows in certain areas, like prophecy. "Here at the end of the millennium, there's been a great interest in it, but I think we're on the downside of that interest." Other titles for which Zettersten cites continuing publishing activity are those on spirituality and business or other practical aspects of life.
"I think we can make too much of the millennium as a publishing strategy," he cautions. While the turn of a millennium d s cause people to ask questions that publishers must address, Zettersten notes, "your bread and butter books -- devotionals, Christian living books -- that's more of the same, because life today hasn't really changed from life a year ago." -- Theola S. Labbé
PHYLLIS TICKLE
New Lines, Labels, Literacy
As Phyllis Tickle sees it, developments in American religion offer significant opportunities for religion book publishers. Tickle naturally thinks that way, having been the religion editor for PW from 1991 to 1996. The author most recently of God-Talk in America (Crossroad, 1997) and a contributing editor for PW since 1996, she has just completed work on The Divine Hours, a series of prayer manuals for Christian fixed-hour prayer. The first of three volumes, Prayers for Summertime, will be published by Doubleday in March 2000.
A prolific writer and popular speaker on religion and religion publishing, Tickle predicts that American Protestantism in particular is in for a new look and some new labeling. The old denominational hierarchies are crumbling, she says, and the dividing lines between the various communions within Protestantism are blurring. What will take their place, she believes, is new groupings of believers, like liturgical Baptists or charismatic Episcopalians, who will realign themselves along lines of practice rather than theology. Organizational hierarchies will be replaced by networks of communication, many of them Internet-based and all of them offering a greater role for local congregations.
Such a tectonic shift in American Protestantism opens the door for publishers to offer books and materials about and for the new players in a changed religious landscape. "We are indeed in postdenominationalism, by whatever name you want to call it," says Tickle. "And as hierarchies falter, the production of spiritual and religion materials, even curricular ones, will fall more and more to free-standing or non“church-affiliated houses. It is a shift that will impact commercial publishing very directly."
Changes in religious literacy will also offer opportunities for publishers to meet the needs of a more visually oriented culture. Tickle envisions a new kind of iconography playing an important role in the 21st century. Graphics-enhanced and electronically based publishing will continue to grow. "Just as in medieval times pictures were the text for an illiterate people, the 'visuals' will become integral to the text for post-literate people," she says. -- Marcia Z. Nelson
ROBERT A.F. THURMAN
Looking to the East
Buddhist scholar Thurman predicts a growing fascination with Buddhism, Taoism and Hinduism -- and the literature of Asian religions -- into the new millennium. "I think the increasing popularity of Asian religions, especially Buddhism, will continue," says Thurman, professor of Buddhist studies at Columbia University and author of several books on Buddhism, including Inner Revolution (Riverhead, 1998) and Circling the Sacred Mountain (Bantam, 1999). Thurman points to the huge success of the Dalai Lama's two recent bestsellers, The Art of Happiness and Ethics for the New Millennium (both Riverhead), as evidence of Americans' hunger for wisdom from Buddhist spiritual teachers. Thich Nhat Hanh is another Buddhist writer who will continue to connect with American seekers, he says. "I think it's only a matter of time before he has a bestseller." Thurman believes this deepening interest in all things Eastern will create a market for popular translations of original works from Eastern religions, such as the Tao Te Ching and I Ching. "I would hope that Americans would have an opportunity to go to original sources."
In addition to the growing popular market, Thurman also predicts a reversal of the Western backlash in the academic world during what he calls the "Reagan and post-Reagan era." "After the expansion of the multicultural attitudes of the '60s and '70s, there was a period of contraction in which universities reaffirmed their Eurocentric curriculum," he says. Many schools initiated required "core" courses, which often featured only Western thinkers. But the reality of burgeoning Asian-American student populations in U.S. universities is having an effect. Asian-Americans make up 65% of the undergraduate population at the University of California at Berkeley, for example. "I believe, in all fields, in literature as well as religion, there will be a more universal or global curriculum, and this will create a demand for classics of the East." -- Heidi Schlumpf
CORNEL WEST
The Danger of 'Idolatry'
Like the biblical prophets he has written about, Cornel West is ready to castigate America for its idolatry. The professor of religion and Afro-American studies at Harvard sees Americans enmeshed in a market culture that prefers maximum profit and minimum charity over social transformation and equal justice. So the danger American religion faces is dilution by the values of the marketplace and degradation into the worship of mammon. "Pecuniary success becomes the center of religious practices," says West, who is equally fluent in the languages of the pulpit and lecture hall. "You might have a little charity on the side, but you basically you have a religion of idolatry."
In West's view, contemporary religion could use a few prophetic blasts of fire and ire against the sin of hypocrisy. "It's not just a matter of feeding the homeless, it's also a matter of being part of a movement to eliminate homelessness," says the prolific author of 16 books, reiterating a characteristic theme of cultural and social engagement. The recently published Cornel West Reader (Perseus, Sept. 1999) sounds the latest note in his 20-year call for social change that would enlarge participatory democracy and honor the best within cultural traditions, including religions and the role they play in articulating values. "Values have always been the black hole of capitalism," says West, who occupies the endowed Alphonse Fletcher Jr. professorship at Harvard. "Religions are stuck with nonmarket values, but it's a wonderful thing."
West also suggests that the ongoing conversation about developments in American religion and culture will be enriched by participation from Muslims in this country. "The anti-Islamic, anti-Arab sensibility is still too strong in America, but I think their struggles against it will produce some insights about American society, across racial lines," says West. Asked whether religion books to come will represent that institution's transcendent best or its intolerant worst, West tells PW he fears what he calls "spiritual malnutrition" stemming from an unmet hunger for the divine. "We'll get a lot of religiosity," West answers. "Whether we'll get prophetic religion is another question." -- Marcia Z. Nelson
NORMAN LAMM
Expecting a Correction
Norman Lamm, president of Yeshiva University and author of 10 books (including The Shema, JPS, and The Religious Thought of Hasidism, KTAV/Yeshiva Univ. Press), says that American religion is currently in transition. "We are moving toward a more spiritual conception of religion, one that is highly subjective and involves more emotion than reason," says Lamm. This tendency will continue in the next five to 10 years, he predicts, and with it comes a turn to what Lamm calls "pseudo-mysticism, which is looked upon as a state of mind but fails to appreciate the objective elements of Kabbalah."
Lamm thinks this phase will then begin to spend itself: "Like everything else in life, religion, too, is subject to the laws of the pendulum," he observes. "Over-emphasis on spirituality will make religion appear totally subjective, without any anchor in reality." That will eventually give way to a more balanced view that lends equal credence both to spirituality and a more structured religious life based on conduct and behavior in the ritual, ethical, moral and social realms, he asserts.
In Judaism, too, Lamm detects a confrontation between a strong focus on halakah -- the highly structured laws of the Torah -- and the growing stress on spirituality with its subjectivity, individualism and emphasis on emotion over reason. At the end of the next decade, he foresees that spirituality and Jewish law will reach a dynamic equilibrium.
The publishing industry, he cautions, "should gird itself for a correction. It should not be enticed to publish books on spirituality alone, but also on more substantive, legal, moral, structured forms of religion that cope with a new world in which spirituality plays a significant but not exclusive role." -- Rahel Musleah
J L FOTINOS
Satisfying Spiritual Hunger
Americans' ravenous spiritual hunger will continue in the new millennium, but religions and book publishers seeking to feed those starving souls will need to follow a new recipe, says J l Fotinos, director of religious publishing for Penguin Putnam and publisher for the Tarcher imprint.
"I think people are going to get tired of their diet of fast-food spirituality and want to get back to good, nutritious meals," says Fotinos. In publishing, that means the general, "New Agey" spirituality books that have fueled the growth in the religion category will be replaced with titles by authors who connect with a specific "wisdom tradition," says Fotinos. "People are going to want solid books with substance that are more rooted in one of the world's religious traditions," he says.
For churches, synagogues and other religious institutions, that means "pick-and-choose" practitioners who had previously eschewed institutional connections will be coming home. "You know the saying, 'It's better to dig one deep well than 12 shallow ones.' People are going to go back to digging one deep well," predicts Fotinos. After years of individualistic sampling of spiritual truths, people are recognizing that they don't always know what's best for themselves, he says. "It's interesting that all religious traditions, each in their own way, teach the paradoxical concept that true freedom comes from complete obedience," he notes. "That's not what the 'lite' spirituality books are telling people."
But Americans' return to their religious roots will not simply mean reverting to old beliefs and practices. "Every generation needs to take the traditional teachings and reinvent them for their time," says Fotinos. "What that d s is make religion or spirituality and religious publishing constantly growing and ever-changing, yet rooted in principles that don't change," he says. "It makes everything new all over again." -- Heidi Schlumpf
YVONNE HADDAD
Religious Ideas Go Global
As she surveys the spiritual landscape and looks toward the near future, Yvonne Haddad, professor of the history of Islam and Christian-Muslim relations at Georgetown University and the author of 14 books (Muslims on the Americanization Path?, Oxford Univ. Press, Jan. 2000), singles out the role of immigration in shaping American religion. "We are a different country now than we were in the '70s as a result of the new Asian and Hispanic immigration," Haddad notes. "Immigrants especially are shaping their identities through religion, America reshapes these religions and America itself is being reshaped by that reshaping."
In the U.S., for example, the role of imam in a mosque is often assumed by a layperson, whereas overseas, the imam is appointed either by the government or by a religious organization. "The mosque in America is a replica of a church or synagogue, with social and educational activities. Overseas, it's not community based. People pray and go home," Haddad says. "This American interpretation is exported when transnational Muslims return home. Ideas are not place bound anymore." The question of how ideas generated in America by new immigrant groups are being transplanted overseas is a major one, according to Haddad. "Globalization is a big issue."
While the Muslim community estimates about five million followers in the U.S. today, not enough attention has been paid to the large Hindu and Buddhist populations, Haddad says. In the next century, she predicts, "we will become more aware of the diversity of American religion and the major changes in the demography of religious America." As another example, she points out that Presbyterian churches are not stereotypically white Protestant anymore. In California, they are predominantly Korean. In the Hispanic community, sociologists have found that 50% of immigrants become Pentecostal Protestants, she adds.
In the next 10 years, the younger generation of these immigrant constituencies will be coming of age and will want to read about themselves, Haddad says. "They will be looking for information about the religion of their parents and an interpretation of that religion that they feel comfortable with, both as immigrants and as Americans." The high birth rate in the Muslim community will produce many young people searching for answers, she notes.
And, she concludes, "there will be more writing on interfaith relations in religion, how we can learn to live together, Jews, Muslims, Christians, Hindus and Buddhists. People of different religions are not 'over there' anymore. They are over here. They are our neighbors. They are us." -- Rahel Musleah
BOB ABERNETHY:
Guidebooks for Living Religion
Religion & Ethics Newsweekly -- the news and public affairs TV program now in its third season -- has become a respected voice in the public conversation about American religion and culture. The show is now carried by 220 stations. As executive editor and host, Bob Abernethy sits in a catbird's seat for viewing developments in religion across the country.
Based on his observations from that perch, Abernethy expects to see religious diversity and its implications for American life and institutions continue to claim headlines and attention. "What d s it mean for my commitment to the truth of my faith tradition to discover and respect the truth of someone else's?" the 42-year veteran of NBC News asks. "Occasionally, we get glimpses of the tensions that can develop in this area," he adds, citing the controversy caused by a recent directive to Southern Baptists to evangelize Jews during the High Holidays.
Another area of modern life that almost seems to beg for books to be written is what Abernethy calls "the state of play" between contemporary science and religion. Two systems of thought that have been at worst antagonists and at best alternatives, that frequently uneasy c xistence calls for a fresh look, he says. "Maybe this kind of thing has been done and done, but I think each new generation needs a treatment of it. There's a place for some reassurance, because we're all not quite so confident as we used to be in science and reason alone."
Abernethy also sees a continuing market for books and goods related to religious practices, which can teach a generation about knowing and living one's faith and religious heritage. "Young parents coming back to church because of their children could use some kind of a theological primer," observes Abernethy, "not heavy, not ponderous Germanic theology, but something a little bit more readable -- a sort of contemporary version of Mere Christianity," the classic work by C.S. Lewis.
More generally, Abernethy continues, Americans seek a kind of spiritual comfort that will help them live their frantic lives better and more deeply. "What would it mean," asks this professional questioner, "if you took seriously some of the ideas of the Christian tradition -- what would that mean for where you live and how much you work and for the education of your children? It seems to me it's tough to live a spiritually based life in a major American city."
Finally, suggests Abernethy, some cultural handbooks could help by providing lists of books or movies that would form a canon for the spiritually literate. He thinks these would be most useful if divided along the lines of major religious traditions or organized in ways that recognize and respect faith differences. -- Marcia Z. Nelson
