Staying Ahead Of the Curve
Kimberly Winston -- 5/15/00
Publishers rely on all forms of research to keep up
with changing spiritual trends.
Short of becoming contestants on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, how can publishers hope to hit the jackpot? As in any business: by figuring out who their customers are, what they want and how best to meet their needs. For religion publishers, the answers to these questions are endlessly moving targets, as the postmodernist trend toward do-it-yourself spirituality continues to vie with traditional religion for a place in American culture. To discover who wants to read what about which flavor of spirituality, publishers have developed a variety of methods for sniffing out the religious demographics of their customers, relying on everything from formal studies to gut instinct.
At the Listening Posts
Zondervan, the evangelical Christian unit of HarperCollins, relies less on formal demographic surveys and more on what it terms "listening posts." Its editors comb magazines and newspapers, attend conferences and form relationships with key religious leaders and organizations. Those contacts keep the house current on trends in the Christian community, according to associate publisher Lyn Cryderman. "By the time a statistical analysis reveals what is already happening, it's too late," he noted. In the mid-1990s, when Zondervan editors attended a series of Women of Faith conferences--gatherings of tens of thousands of Christian women in sports arenas, similar to the Promise Keepers conferences for men--they knew the time was right to publish to that group. "Women of Faith taught us there is a very large group of women who are hungry for encouragement and inspiration," Cryderman said. "We sort of knew that already, but seeing it firsthand confirmed for us the need to publish in that category." Zondervan's most recent title in this line is Extravagant Grace (Jan.) by Patsy Clairmont, Barbara Johnson, Marilyn Meberg, Luci Swindoll, Sheila Walsh and Thelma Wells, all speakers at the Women of Faith conferences.
Other Zondervan listening posts homed in on the hunger of longtime Christians for a new level of commitment. "There is a growing restlessness for a deeper level of God's blessing," Cryderman commented. So when Jim Cymbala's manuscript for Fresh Wind, Fresh Fire came to the house, Zondervan editors were confident it would do well. "At the time, Jim was not a well-known author," Cryderman remembered, "so without the benefit of our 'demographics,' we might have passed on it." The book, released in 1997, has been on both the Evangelical Christian Publishers Association (ECPA) and PW bestseller lists.
Now Zondervan's listeners hear whispers that books for aging boomers are hot. "In the last five years, we have published several titles that speak directly to this audience, and they have all done very well," said Cryderman. To keep up with the over-40 market, this fall Zondervan will publish The Act of Marriage After 40 by Tim and Beverly LaHaye (Oct.), and the house has plans for a series of books on health and wellness in partnership with the Christian Medical and Dental Society. The first release in the series will be Alternative Medicine: A Christian's Handbook (Jan. 2001).
Listening to the Gut
At Jewish Lights, spiritual demographics play a supporting role to the gut instincts and personal spiritual journeys of its staff. "We do not use demographic data in a formal way in planning our publishing program," publisher Stuart Matlins told PW. "What we publish reflects what we are interested in, and our understanding of what other people are interested in based on our own experience with them trying to live a Jewish life." Still, a national Jewish population survey conducted in 1990 by the Council of Jewish Federations led to one of the house's biggest successes, How to Be a Perfect Stranger: A Guide to Etiquette in Other People's Religious Ceremonies, edited by Arthur J. Magida and Matlins, vol. 1 (1995) and vol. 2 (1996). "Those books reflected our understanding of the intermarriage data" that came from the survey, Matlins said, noting that more than 50% of American Jews are married to someone of another faith.
One demographic projection that drives much of the publishing at Jewish Lights is the belief that one-third of all Jewish Lights book sales are to non-Jewish consumers. Matlins and his staff have determined this from a variety of sources, including bookseller feedback, customer response cards slipped into all JL books and climbing sales of JL books to Christian retailers. And since Jews make up less than 5% of the American population, "There aren't enough Jews in America by any definition to account for the size and rapid growth of our sales," Matlins explained. Jewish Lights also relies heavily on bookseller feedback to determine who their audience is and what those readers want. One book that arose out of that feedback was Bible Baby Names: Spiritual Choices from Judeo-Christian Tradition by Anita Diamant (1996), which JL published after a Christian bookseller reported many customers buying their The Jewish Baby Book: Names, Ceremonies and Customs by Anita Diamant (now out of print) for its section on Bible names.
Research on the Mainline
Westminster John Knox Press, the trade publishing arm of the Presbyterian Church in the USA (PCUSA) denomination, culls demographic information from a range of sources, including American Demographics magazine, reports from the Barna Research Group and "Subtext," an annual survey produced by the Book Industry Study Group. They also rely heavily on information from a survey conducted by the Protestant Church-owned Publishers Association (PCPA) with a grant from the Lilly Foundation. But again, WJK publisher Richard Brown and product line manager Chris Conver told PW their best source for who wants what is their own staff. "It is a combination of art and science for us, but probably more art than science," said Brown.
The PCPA study has had a more direct impact on WJK's Geneva imprint, designed to serve Presbyterian church professionals, lay ministers and staff. According to Conver, the study told the press "that our customer base is very interested in hands-on, practical material--things that help with the day-to-day operation of the church." As a result, Geneva will publish some new books this fall and next winter that deal with such issues as how to call a pastor, how to invest lay ministers and how to hire good church staff. In the wake of the study, the house realized, "Duh, this was a no-brainer," Conver said, but it reminded them that "the highfalutin stuff was good, but we needed some brass tacks, too."
On the trade side, WJK keeps in close contact with booksellers, especially those at the United Methodist-owned Cokesbury stores. Bookseller input led to the publication of several large-print editions of existing WJK books, including Kneeling in Bethlehem (1987) and Kneeling in Jerusalem (1993), both by p t Ann Weems. The large-print editions have sold an additional 5000 copies of each book.
Augsburg Fortress Press, the publishing arm of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) receives some demographic information from its denomination but relies on other sources to determine who and where its customers are. Recently the house looked at existing academic studies on American youth, breaking down the youth market into two segments--Gen-Xers (born 1960-1981) and Millennials (born after 1981 ). What the studies told them was that Xers tend to be dark, cynical and depressed. Almost half are from broken homes. Millennials, on the other hand, tend to be more hopeful, to question authority and to be concerned with the environment. "We tried to take some of the images and project what they say about what these people think of religion and culture," Augsburg publicist Gayle Aldrich told PW. That analysis led to the press's new Verge Youth line, which so far includes The Verge Youth Student Planning Calendar (Mar.) for the trade and E-Devotions, an e-mail service for college-age subscribers.
Working the Web
Penguin Putnam also uses Barna research, American Demographics and other newsletters and magazines to keep tabs on readers and their interests. However, J l Fotinos, director of religious publishing, believes that the single-most important source of demographic information today is the Internet: "It has become a hugely important tool in the life of publishing. Jumping on the Internet, it is easy to find a group, society, organization, denomination or school with just about any spiritual focus."
Still, demographic information plays only a supporting and not a driving role in the house's religion publishing program. Editors will scan academic materials, cruise the Internet and call on leaders in various religion fields to find demographic reasons to support a proposed book. When the book is done, marketing and public relations staff comb similar sources to determine its best target audience--aging boomers, 20-somethings, men, women--and even pinpoint what cities to send touring authors to. Recently, the house sent New Thought minister Mary Murray Shelton, author of Guidance from the Darkness (Mar.) to Los Angeles when marketing research turned up a large number of New Thought adherents there. (New Thought, which emerged out of Christian Science in the 1880s, was called by philosopher William James "the religion of healthy mindedness" and was a forerunner of the positive thinking movement.) "Deciding what and how to publish is a group effort," Fotinos said. "I imagine this will continue for us, though as Internet-based research groups become more abundant, we might use them more and more."
What Do the Catholics Want?
At Our Sunday Visitor, a study of practicing Catholics the press published in book form three years ago indirectly led to the publication of a number of titles. The study, The Search for Common Ground: What Unites and Divides Catholic Americans by Purdue University professor Dr. James Davidson (1997), focused on three generationally distinct groups of Catholics--youth, baby boomers and seniors--and outlined what interests they held in common and separately. Greg Erlandson, OSV's editor-in-chief, said the study confirmed what many at OSV already knew: "That the religious education of younger Catholics was w fully lacking, and that books that helped them to better understand the basics of their faith would be a smart way to go." Since then, the house has published several "how-to" Catholic books including What Catholics Believe by Mike Aquilina and Kris Stubna (1999) and Praying in the Presence of Our Lord, a book that explains eucharistic adoration, by Benedict J. Gr schel (1999). In March, the house released The How-To Book of Catholic Devotions: Everything You Need to Know but No One Ever Taught You by Mike Aquilina and Regis J. Flaherty. As helpful as the study was, Erlandson said other ways of "keeping an ear to the ground" are even more important--such as listening to the needs of lay Catholics in his own parish. "It wasn't a revelation from above," he noted of the study, "but it confirmed our perceptions"
Loyola Press is embarking on a fresh demographic quest. Heidi Toboni, director of marketing for trade books, reported that one of the press's main goals for the year 2000 is to base all new product decisions and marketing strategies on some kind of research. Last year, Loyola conducted its own search for solid demographics on book-buying habits in the Catholic market, its primary customer base, and found very little. So the house contracted with an independent research organization with a specialty in studies of the Catholic Church. Loyola purchased a segment of questions tailored to help them judge market size, changing tastes, consumer buying patterns and more. Late last month, Loyola received some of the results, which Toboni said "reveal a somewhat surprising result that will definitely impact our publishing and marketing program." From a sample of self-identified Catholics in the U.S., 28% reported shopping in non-Catholic, Christian bookstores to satisfy their religious and spiritual reading needs. "We think this percentage is much higher than some CBA publishers and buyers or general trade professionals might expect," Toboni told PW. She added she is particularly interested in what further results from the survey will tell Loyola about how well it is satisfying the needs of customers from different age groups. For example, are young people more likely to purchase books online? Are they looking only for certain categories or topics? Are their buying habits different from those who buy from more traditional outlets? "Answers to questions like these will definitely inform what we publish and the ways we market in the future," she added.
At Ave Maria Press, editorial and marketing staff glean demographic information from Gallup polls and from a newsletter published by the Center for Applied Research on the Apostolate at Georgetown University. But its primary demographics source is books, said Robert Hamma, the house's editorial director. Particularly helpful have been After Heaven: Spirituality in America Since the 1950s by Robert Wuthnow (Univ. of California Press, 1998) and Practicing Our Faith: A Way of Life for a Searching People, edited by Dorothy C. Bass (Jossey-Bass, 1997). These books, which largely chronicle the movement of spiritual seekers away from traditional churches and forms of worship to a more "cut-and-paste" spirituality, were influential in the development of Ave Maria's nondenominational Sorin imprint. "These books have helped us understand and discuss the cultural interest in spirituality," explained Hamma. "It wasn't so much that we learned new things from them as that they focused what we were observing." Sorin, now in its third season, seems to be hitting the target with this audience. Two Sorin titles, Take Back Your Kids: Confident Parenting in Turbulent Times by William Doherty (Mar.) and Everyday Simplicity: A Practical Guide to Spiritual Growth by Robert Wicks (Jan.), each sold 10,000 copies in their first three months.
Predictions, Predictions
Of course, the real value of any demographic information lies in how well it functions as a crystal ball. At Jewish Lights, baby boomers are a continuing concern, especially as they age and have more time to read and reflect. To that end, Jewish Lights is launching The Way Into. . . series, offering a guided tour of the Jewish faith and people. The first titles will be The Way into Jewish Prayer by Lawrence Hoffman and The Way into Torah by Norman J. Cohen (both July) and The Way into the Jewish Mystical Tradition by Lawrence Kushner (Sept.). At Westminster John Knox, Conver noted that predicting any trend through demographics "is a roll of the dice. Research takes a while to accumulate, and then you are looking at something that may already be a year old by the time it is published. What is going to be hot three years from now is the real question." Still, Conver is willing to make this prediction: the rise of the seeker-oriented churches, with their more contemporary music and worship styles, will continue to make itself felt in the reading needs of their congregants. "That being the case, I think our strong point will be to publish things that tie people to the traditions of their faith, but make those traditions applicable to today and tomorrow."
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