PW: Consumer Study Finds Unit Sales Up 3% in 1999

Jim Milliot, Lynn Garrett and Phyllis Tickle |

Jun 19, 2000

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Consumer Study Finds Unit Sales Up 3% in 1999
Jim Milliot, Lynn Garrett and Phyllis Tickle -- 6/19/00

Unit sales of adult consumer books rose 3.3% in 1999, to 1.07 billion, according to the findings of the 1999 Consumer Research Study on Book Purchasing. The gain in adult sales in 1999 follows a year when units were off 2.6%. Unit sales of children's books, however, fell 1.1%, to 481 million, in 1999, the third consecutive year in which unit sales of children's books declined.

The improvement in adult unit sales was led by the fiction category, where sales rose 8% in the year. Other segments that posted gains included cooking/crafts, technical/science/education and travel/regional. Sales of general fiction titles were down 1% in 1999 and unit sales of reference works fell 10%. Barrie Rappaport of the NPD Group, which conducted the study, speculated that the decline in reference units was due in part to an increased use of the Internet by consumers to access information. Other segments that had unit declines were art/literature/p try, psychology/recovery and religious, although sales of religious novel units were up in the year and are included in the fiction category.

The trend toward more book purchases being made outside of traditional bookstores continued in 1999, as the combined market share of chains and independents fell to 39.8%, from 41.9% in 1998. The market share of the large chains fell from 25.3%, to 24.6%, due to the closure of Lauriat's and the bankruptcy and downsizing of Crown Books. The share of the market held by independent booksellers fell again in the year, dropping to 15.2% from 16.6%, although ABA CEO Avin Domnitz said he is confident that the association's Book Sense campaign will help independents regain market share as soon as this year.

Sales through online booksellers showed the fastest growth in the year; their market share jumped to 5.4%, from 1.9% in 1998. E-retailers were the sixth largest distribution channel last year, up from 10th place in 1998. The only other channel to increase its market share in 1999 was mass merchandisers, whose share rose from 5.9% to 6.2%. NPD estimated that online sales accounted for 75% of incremental book purchases in 1999, followed by mass merchandisers at 10%.

The decline in unit sales of children's books was attributed to weakness in the coloring/activity book and educational workbook categories; excluding those two categories, unit sales were up 2% to 336 million. Another factor that slowed children's unit sales was that 43% of sales of Harry Potter titles were made by or for young adults and adults. Rappaport also noted that the number of children under age 14 is growing at a slower pace than the overall population, and that by 2005, the number of children between 6 and 8 will fall by 5%.

Religion Ranks 2nd

The BISG's figures on category market share affirmed the importance of religion to the book industry's health. The study ranked religion number three at 9.3% of market share, behind only popular fiction, at 53.3% and cooking/crafts at 10%. When PW asked what would happen if religious fiction was broken out of general popular fiction and added back into the religion category, Rappaport re-crunched the numbers and came up with a market share of 16% for religion, making it number two, with popular fiction at number one with 36%. "Fiction led the industry's recovery, and fiction's growth was led by romance [gaining 14%] and religious [gaining 8%]," Rappaport said.
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A version of this article appeared in the 06/19/2000 issue of Publishers Weekly under the headline: