BISG Projects 5% Gain In Book Sales in 2000

Jim Milliot |

Aug 28, 2000

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BISG Projects 5% Gain In Book Sales in 2000 Jim Milliot -- 8/28/00 *Total revenues expected to reach $24.71 billion for the year* Total book sales are projected to increase 5.2% in 2000 to an estimated $24.71 billion, according to forecasts in Book Industry Study Group Trends 2000. If revenue growth hits the forecast target, it will better the 4.3% growth rate posted in 1999. The greatest gain in the year is predicted for the children's segment due in large measure to the huge demand for both new and backlist Harry Potter titles. Sales in the children's segment are expected to increase 10.2% to $1.9 billion this year, led by an 11.0% increase in hardcover sales to $1.18 billion. Children's paperback sales are projected to rise 6.8% to $705.6 million. The forecast for the adult category is not as rosy. The study estimates that total revenues in the adult category will increase 3.5% to nearly $5 billion. The fastest growth is seen in the trade paperback side, with BISG expecting a 5.0% gain to $2.07 billion. Growth in adult hardcover sales is pegged at 3.2% to $2.91 billion. With its lower price point and growing number of titles, the trade paperback segment has consistently outgained the hardcover side, a trend expected to continue over the next five years. After falling 7.3% in 1999, sales in the mass market paperback category are expected to rebound this year, increasing 5.1% to $1.47 billion. The gain will still keep mass market paperback sales below the high- water mark of $1.55 billion set in 1996, although the study is optimistic that given more effective distribution and better promotion at superstores, sales of mass market paperbacks will grow slowly through 2004. Competition from online retailers has hindered the growth of book clubs; sales were up only 3.7% in 1999, and growth is expected to slow again to 3.3% in 2000, with total revenues hitting almost $1.3 billion. Book clubs are in a transitional phase as they look for ways to compete with e-retailers, and annual growth rates of less than 4% are predicted for the next five years. Mail order is the only segment forecast to have a sales decline in 2000, with sales estimated to fall 10.2% to $370.6 million. The second largest sales increase in 2000 is forecast for the college segment, with sales projected to increase 8.1% to $3.38 billion. Enrollment trends continue to be favorable and college publishers have been aggressively incorporating technology into their materials to attract students and to battle used-book companies. Expanding enrollment plus well-funded state coffers are expected to result in a 5.6% increase in elhi sales this year to $3.61 billion. Sales of professional books are projected to increase 5.4% to almost $5 billion. The fastest growth within the segment is expected to be in the business category, where BISG is projecting an 8.6% gain. Sales of medical books are estimated to increase 6.0%, while sales in the legal category are projected to rise 5.6%. The technical and scientific segment is forecast to have a 2.1% growth rate this year. Sales in the university press category are estimated to increase 4.8% to $431.5 million, while sales of religion books are projected to increase 3.6% to $1.26 billion. Taking a look over the next five years, BISG predicts that book sales will grow at a 5.1% compound annual growth rate with sales topping $30 billion in 2004.

News

BISG Projects 5% Gain In Book Sales in 2000
Jim Milliot -- 8/28/00
Total revenues expected to reach $24.71 billion for the year

Total book sales are projected to increase 5.2% in 2000 to an estimated $24.71 billion, according to forecasts in Book Industry Study Group Trends 2000. If revenue growth hits the forecast target, it will better the 4.3% growth rate posted in 1999.

The greatest gain in the year is predicted for the children's segment due in large measure to the huge demand for both new and backlist Harry Potter titles. Sales in the children's segment are expected to increase 10.2% to $1.9 billion this year, led by an 11.0% increase in hardcover sales to $1.18 billion. Children's paperback sales are projected to rise 6.8% to $705.6 million. The forecast for the adult category is not as rosy. The study estimates that total revenues in the adult category will increase 3.5% to nearly $5 billion. The fastest growth is seen in the trade paperback side, with BISG expecting a 5.0% gain to $2.07 billion. Growth in adult hardcover sales is pegged at 3.2% to $2.91 billion. With its lower price point and growing number of titles, the trade paperback segment has consistently outgained the hardcover side, a trend expected to continue over the next five years.

After falling 7.3% in 1999, sales in the mass market paperback category are expected to rebound this year, increasing 5.1% to $1.47 billion. The gain will still keep mass market paperback sales below the high- water mark of $1.55 billion set in 1996, although the study is optimistic that given more effective distribution and better promotion at superstores, sales of mass market paperbacks will grow slowly through 2004.

Competition from online retailers has hindered the growth of book clubs; sales were up only 3.7% in 1999, and growth is expected to slow again to 3.3% in 2000, with total revenues hitting almost $1.3 billion. Book clubs are in a transitional phase as they look for ways to compete with e-retailers, and annual growth rates of less than 4% are predicted for the next five years. Mail order is the only segment forecast to have a sales decline in 2000, with sales estimated to fall 10.2% to $370.6 million. The second largest sales increase in 2000 is forecast for the college segment, with sales projected to increase 8.1% to $3.38 billion. Enrollment trends continue to be favorable and college publishers have been aggressively incorporating technology into their materials to attract students and to battle used-book companies. Expanding enrollment plus well-funded state coffers are expected to result in a 5.6% increase in elhi sales this year to $3.61 billion. Sales of professional books are projected to increase 5.4% to almost $5 billion. The fastest growth within the segment is expected to be in the business category, where BISG is projecting an 8.6% gain. Sales of medical books are estimated to increase 6.0%, while sales in the legal category are projected to rise 5.6%. The technical and scientific segment is forecast to have a 2.1% growth rate this year.

Sales in the university press category are estimated to increase 4.8% to $431.5 million, while sales of religion books are projected to increase 3.6% to $1.26 billion.

Taking a look over the next five years, BISG predicts that book sales will grow at a 5.1% compound annual growth rate with sales topping $30 billion in 2004.

A version of this article appeared in the 08/28/2000 issue of Publishers Weekly under the headline: