Maybe it's the Millennium or the still-evolving event of the e-book, but this year more than ever there seems to be a greater focus in the media about the plight of the publishing industry. One of the more recent musings appeared in the L.A. Times Book Review under the jarring headline, "Is Publishing Dead?" It featured the opinions from a cast of industry insiders found on the Rolodex of any book reporters worth their salt, that is if any reporters worth their salt use a Rolodex anymore. With all the noise about conglomeration and blockbusters and technological innovation, just how much has the day-to-day business of the book changed?

To read some articles, the industry is on the brink of collapse, as Hyperion v-p Robert Miller noted with some dismay in the L.A. Times piece: "After all, Chicken Little got loads of attention, and no one would want to read a piece on the book business that said, 'Fifty thousand books are published each year on every subject under the sun. Some of these books are poorly written and/or poorly published; some of these books are intelligently written and intelligently published; some of these books are profitable and some aren't.' Unfortunately for those who find this boring, there is no evidence to the contrary."

Okay, Bob, here's that article. Try not to fall asleep.

Looking back on the year that was in publishing, for the most part 2000 seemed to work. There were disappointments, sure, but plenty of successes and a number of surprises that help make this whole game worthwhile. There were situations that couldn't be avoided. For instance, the public was distracted by an election that seemed a snooze and then never ended. When that hogged the media attention this fall, books that would have made the news otherwise suffered without that boost. Yet somewhere between the booksellers' observations and the publishers' spinnings of the real and "estimated" numbers, it is clear that this year the industry paid attention to inventory control. For the most part, the restraint paid off, and disasters were kept at bay.

"I think everybody has gotten increasingly conscious of becoming more efficient with what we put out," observed David Rosenthal, publisher of Simon & Schuster, whose words were echoed across the board by people PW spoke with recently. "Everybody realizes that there is no point in us printing stuff that never ships and in stores buying stuff that they never unpack. Just-in-time inventory has caught everyone's attention. People have smartened up. The system is imperfect, to say the least, but the point is to sell books, not print books."

Overall, booksellers and wholesalers said publishers were more realistic about expectations for their titles and more forthcoming with useful marketing information. Part of that, explained Paul Bogaards, executive director of publicity at Knopf, is that publishers have been able to get that information ahead of time. "Publishers always try to do as much up-front planning as they can," he said. "But what happens now is that we have gotten better at pushing out accurate information about publicity, such as commitments from morning shows, serializations in major magazines, appearances on National Public Radio, C-SPAN." That information translates into more realistic buys by the accounts.

Even so, publishing is still not an exact science. "We can predict. We can roll the dice. But in the end it is the consumer who decides what is going to sink or swim," said Bogaards.

What's in a Name?

A few years ago books by and/or about celebrities seemed all the rage, grabbing the headlines and some pretty hefty advances. In 2000 this trend continued, albeit on a more manageable scale.

The Beatles Anthology scored highest in this category by far, with Chronicle selling 1,038,666 copies worldwide. Yet some independent booksellers told PW their Beatles sales were good, but not spectacular. One reason is that it is the kind of book that can be found on sale everywhere, not just in bookstores. Another reason booksellers might be holding back on the cartwheels for this title and a few others has a lot to do with the difference between perception and reality. Margaret Maupin, buyer at the Tattered Cover in Denver, explained: "I think that sometimes when you expect a book to sell in the stratosphere and it doesn't—but you had good sales and expected more out of it—it's a perceived disappointment." If a bookseller had ordered fewer, she added, "it wouldn't be a disappointment at all."

Again it comes down to inventory management. "There's been a general sobering in the industry," observed Carol Schneider, v-p and associate publisher at Random House Adult. In the past few years Random has cut back on its celebrity titles. On the list in 2000 was Get Happy, a biography of Judy Garland by Gerald Clarke. While Ingram assistant v-p Susie Rossenberger said she was pleasantly surprised that this title sold double the wholesaler's aggressive first buy, the numbers were not overwhelming. Schneider said Random didn't go crazy with its first printing; it put out 60,000 and expects to net 45,000. A respectable number, but moderate. "There are certain people that people don't seem to tire of hearing about," said Schneider. "I guess we thought Judy Garland was one of them."

In this post-O.J. age of media saturation, it seems that the celebrities who manage to keep some of their private lives out of the pages of People do best.

Take Liz Smith. For a woman who seemed to know something about everybody else, the public knew very little about the longtime columnist's own life. "We knew she had led an interesting life by proximity," explained Hyperion's Miller, publisher of Smith's Natural Blonde. To publish a success, "we better be offering something in a book form we haven't already been inundated with. Also, the book itself has to really offer substance. And we didn't go out with a million copies." Of the 130,000 copies printed, he said the house expects to net 90,000. It's a track record he called a "terrific sell-through."

Another Liz—Liz Taylor—didn't fare quite so well numbers-wise, but The Most Beautiful Woman in the World by Ellis Amburn (Cliff Street/HarperCollins) is a celebrity biography, not an autobiography. "They are very different," said Cliff Street publisher Diane Reverand. The publisher shipped 28,000 copies and expects to net close to 20,000. "We consider this to be solid celebrity bio midlist," she added.

Sticking with celebrity biography, a couple of other titles popped up on the radar this year: America's Queen on Jackie Kennedy Onassis by Sarah Bradford for Viking, and Burt Lancaster by Kate Buford for Knopf. (Don't worry, sports fans, DiMaggio comes later.) If there is such a thing as Kennedy fatigue, Debra Morris, buyer for the independent bookstore chain Barbara's, said she thinks Jackie is exempt from it. Viking Penguin senior editor and publicity v-p Paul Slovak told PW that America's Queen sold right out of the box. "We published in a spectacular way," he added, referring to the 20/20 feature timed for the October release and a three-installment serial in USA Today. Viking came out with a 94,000-copy initial printing and, with seven times back to press, has 155,000 copies sold. It is a little early for net sales, said Slovak. Lancaster, according to Knopf's Bogaards, met expectations. "We didn't position this as an out-of-the-box bestseller," he explained. "With celebrity bios there's very little gray area; you're either leading with your chin or landing on your chin." Keeping the initial print run down helps prevent the latter situation.

Many wondered—largely because of a David Kirkpatrick piece in the New York Times about it—just where Viking Studio landed when it offered a shared markdown on (remaindered in place) its glossy picture book Vanity Fair's Hollywood. "I don't think Kirkpatrick quite got what this was," said Viking's Maureen Donnelly. "The shared discount was just to keep it going. We offered it right after Christmas, which is what we do." With two printings Viking released 112,000 copies and exceeded the house's expectations, which, according to Donnelly, were half that amount. The discount made a difference at the bookstores. "They haven't been doing that quite so frequently as they once did," said Tattered Cover's Maupin. "At one time it was quite common that if a picture book, or any book, didn't sell, then they would just remainder it in place, which saves everyone postage and grief. We did fine with that." At Barnes & Noble, corporate communications director Debra Williams said Hollywood "sold well during the holidays."

Riding the Family Name

In celebrity's subgenre of offspring writing about their famous parents, Sinatra seemed to outsell Salinger. For Barbara's Bookstores, which has several traditional stores as well as airport stores, Morris said she was surprised how well My Father's Daughter by Tina Sinatra (S&S) sold. "Because it's Frank and it's Tina [implication, not Nancy]," she said. "It's a fresh view of him from someone who hasn't been in the public eye so much." Dream Catcher by Margaret Salinger (Pocket) sold, she said, but not aggressively. Other booksellers agreed with Morris that while critics might be interested in dirt on J.D. Salinger, readers would rather have new stories by him. This title might have also suffered somewhat from the hype about Joyce Maynard's At Home in the World in 1998.

S&S's Rosenthal told PW that the Sinatra memoir sold a quarter-million copies. "Would I liked to have sold half a million? Sure. I always want to sell half a million copies," he added.

While not a blood relationship, Jerry Stiller's association with another Jerry (Seinfeld) caused S&S to hope it might help boost sales for Married to Laughter. "I thought it could break out," said Rosenthal. "We've had luck with older celebrities. Esther Williams was a big bestseller for us. We had a terrific run with Mike Douglas this year. It's a nostalgia book, too. [Married] did fine, but it didn't break out." Doing "fine" in this case means a net between 25,000 and 30,000..

Politics and Pundits

In this election year, success meant being on the winning team—or at least poking fun at the winner. Hands down, booksellers named Shrub by Molly Ivins and Lou Dubose (Random) as the favorite election-year book. "It was not a huge bestseller," said Random's Schneider. "But it did twice what [Ivins's] books have done before, with the exception of the first collection when she was introduced to the world." With an 85,000-copy first printing and four trips back to press, Random is not complaining. "And it was funny," Schneider added. "That always counts." Perhaps Ivins offered comic Kool-Aid to a parched electorate. Morris observed that it was the Ivins name and wit that sold Shrub.

Having a famous name did not necessarily help Joe Eszterhas win friends in the media and among booksellers this summer with the publication of American Rhapsody (Knopf). In fact, of all the titles PW considered, the screenwriter's, shall we say, "unique" take on the Clinton presidency evoked the strongest response. PW gave it some pretty prime editorial real estate and ran a starred review that led with "A loud belch commands attention..." (Forecasts, July 17). It was hyped with a capital "H." But did it tank? It depends on what the definition of "tank" is.

"The book landed hot and sold through the summer," said Knopf's Bogaards. "This is a book that did not win the support of the bookselling community, and it succeeded despite protests from that community and from some in the media." Of its 200,000-copy first printing, he said Knopf should net 140,000. The audience was largely bicoastal and in the metropolitan areas, sort of mirroring the red vs. blue split on national election night maps. "You can't deny that this book was an event," said Bogaards. "I'm not going to say that 100 years from now they are going to be reading this, but who knows, 100 years from now this might be the book that best encapsulates the Clinton presidency and those years."

Media Darlings or Duds

Within the genre of celebrity is a subset of media personality. But just having a media presence does not guarantee sales. Sometimes it's about the timing. Like many bookstores, the Tattered Cover sold moderate numbers of Off Camera by Ted Koppel (Knopf). "I think a few years ago it would have done better," said Maupin. "I think Ted Koppel was more in the news then, his program had a higher profile than it does now. It was just a little late." Bogaards said Knopf was happy with the book but disappointed that it didn't take off in the marketplace as it had hoped. The publisher had a 225,000-copy first printing and is taking returns. At Ingram, Rossenberger observed: "I think this is one that people had higher expectations for because of the success of the Tom Brokaw and Peter Jennings books—although they are very different books."

Success for the media personality turned author had much to do with the kind of book they wrote. Maureen Egen, publisher at Warner Books, said the house did not view Maria Shriver's Ten Things I Wish I'd Known—Before I Went Out into the Real World as a celebrity book per se, largely because of its inspirational nature. "It was done for the content, not the fact that she is a celebrity," explained Egen. Certainly her celebrity status played a role in landing an Oprah appearance the day the book came out, which helped catapult sales. Of the 700,000 in print, Egen said it had sold "hundreds of thousands," is still selling and will most likely get another jump at graduation time. (The book is an extension of a graduation address Shriver gave at Holy Cross College.) Booksellers were grateful to have a book where a celebrity was actually saying something of value. "It was a good title," said Barbara's Morris. "Instead of a celebrity writing about her life, she gave insight into why her life is working. It goes against the scandal thing. There are some people, like Maria Shriver, that the public likes when good things happen to them."

Scandal doesn't always sell, and as Holly Golightly says in Breakfast at Tiffany's, "There are certain shades of limelight that can wreck a girl's complexion." Such was the case with Dr. Laura Schlessinger. Public allegations about her homophobia and the hypocrisy of her own divorce given her family values stance did not help sales of Parenthood by Proxy (Cliff Street/HarperCollins). "She was certainly hurt by all the bad publicity," said Maupin at the Tattered Cover, "so we did very poorly with that." Cliff Street's Reverand, who has published Schlessinger before, said the publicity definitely did some damage to sales. "We ended up selling a little over 100,000. She usually sells more than 200,000," Reverand said. Since Parenthood by Proxy is a how-to book, Reverand said she had lower expectations for it. Controversy or not, next fall Dr. Laura returns with a new title for Warner, Ten Stupid Things Couples Do, that's more in-line with her previous titles.

Along with Dr. Laura's book, Rossenberger listed Keep It Simple, Stupid by Judge Judy Sheindlin (Cliff Street) and Practical Miracles for Mars and Venus by John Gray (HarperCollins) as the titles Ingram bought aggressively and had to return. (She declined to share exact figures with PW.) "These are all people who have been extremely successful with books in the past, and I think it's really hard to come down in numbers when you've seen real success," explained Rossenberger. HarperCollins publisher Cathy Hemming concurred: "A lot of times you get sort of swept up with the excitement of the reps and the booksellers and it's hard to hold back." This particular John Gray title was more personal and spiritual than the other Mars and Venus books. Of the 220,000 copies shipped, Harper expects to sell 100,000. "He is a huge, huge asset to this company," said Hemming. "Even with an in-between book like this, we still have success with him." Up next for Gray: this fall Harper will publish Mars and Venus in the Marketplace, a financial self-help playing on the strengths of his previous bestsellers.

Something for Sports Fans

By no means does Judith Regan, publisher of the imprint bearing her name at HarperCollins, think the celebrity genre has waned. "You just have to chose the right celebrities," she told PW. This year Regan did particularly well by prospecting the mine of the Worldwide Wrestling Federation. The Rock Says... by The Rock and Can You Take the Heat?: The WWF Is Cooking! by Jim "J.R." Ross were strong sellers, which surprised some booksellers. Reagan never doubted them for a minute. "I fully expected them to work and they did," she said. Professional wrestling has a huge following, but as Rossenberger pointed out, "they are not the people you immediately think of as big book buyers." But Ingram is selling lots of these books and similar titles. "It's my impression that they are big fans and they buy lots of paraphernalia—T-shirts, posters, caps." Given the success of these titles, booksellers said they were a little disappointed in the performance of I'm Next by the former NFL lineman turned pro wrestler Bill Goldberg with Steve Goldberg (Crown). B&N's Williams had a theory: "Great story, but it didn't sell as well as we expected. The WCW doesn't promote as extensively as the WWF."

A biography of a beloved hero and a memoir by a relative unknown ranked as two home runs last year in the sports-related camp. Rosenthal compared the performance of Joe DiMaggio: The Hero's Life by Richard Ben Cramer to When Pride Still Mattered: A Life of Vince Lombardi by David Maraniss published by S&S in '99. "If somebody would have told me a few years ago that two of our most profitable books would be serious writers doing biographies of dead Italian sports heroes, I would've laughed at them," Rosenthal told PW. Sure enough, DiMaggio earned critical acclaim and has sold 280,000 copies.

One of the greatest success stories of the year is Lance Armstrong's It's Not About the Bike (Putnam). "It had all the elements of what people love," observed Morris. "He beat the cancer and he won the race." The timing was pretty good, too: it came out in May, Armstrong won the Tour de France in June, then he was in the Olympics in August. Maupin said that the book is still stocked in her new nonfiction section. "It is a survival story," she said, "not in the same way as The Last River and The Perfect Storm and all of that—but, in a way, it is an adventure story."

Adventure, Anyone?

While none of this year's action-adventure Into Thin Air/The Perfect Storm kind of books sold as well as their forebears, it is an area that still spells sales for publishers and booksellers. The Last Dive by Bernie Chowdhury (HarperCollins) didn't make any of the bestseller lists as Hemming said the house hoped it would, but it was "pretty darn good." With numerous foreign rights deals and 78% sell-through, Harper considers it a success. "This is one of the ones that we wished had gotten more broadcast publicity," she told PW. Published in September, The Last Dive, the account of a father and son's fatal diving expedition, faced tough competition for TV time during the election.

Foreign rights sales helped put True Summit, a book about a European climb by David Roberts, in the black for S&S. Rosenthal said S&S kept the printing under control, too. "I think it started with about 15,000 or so. We added some more on, and it will probably go to over 20,000 gross," he said. "I think what's interesting about all the adventure books—having done Jon Krakauer, I can speak from experience—is that they sell very well in paperback."

Generally, booksellers are eager to see titles in this genre but order with caution. "It's going to be a long time before we see a breakout one, only because the market is so saturated," said Morris.

The Personal Touch

Not surprisingly the author's personal involvement in publicity for his or her memoir makes a difference. One of the bright surprises of the year was a title about waitressing from Harper called Waiting by Debra Ginsberg. "She worked her butt off," said Hemming about the author, which seems par for the course for a waitress. Harper started small with its print run and went back to press six times for a 30,000-copy total. This title attracted much buzz from the independent booksellers and was a Book Sense pick. "We chased and chased and chased it," said Hemming, "and now we are set up to really go at it in trade paperback."

Random had a nice surprise in the success of Adam Gopnick's Paris to the Moon. "We started with a 17,500 first printing and netted 119,000," said Random's Schneider. There are certainly plenty of books on Paris, but this travel memoir from a New Yorker writer struck a chord. Gopnick also talked and talked about the book on several NPR programs. "People love Paris and he had a wry look at it—not totally a love affair, but Paris, warts and all," observed Maupin. "It's sort of like Simon Winchester when he sold The Professor and the Madman on NPR and it immediately took off."

Despite the author's continued popularity at book signings, a title that never seemed to really take off was Malachy McCourt's Singing My Him Song (HarperCollins). "We expected this to be a bestseller, and we are disappointed it wasn't," said Hemming. "We're getting pretty good sell-through [66%] because we didn't overprint." Booksellers observed that in Malachy's case he not only had to live up to the success of his first book, A Monk Swimming (Hyperion), but was also hampered somewhat by his brother Frank having covered the waterfront for Irish tales of New York.

Follow-Ups Are Hard to Do

The greatest disappointments—perceived or real—usually involve coming up short against a previous success. "You have to be careful," explained Viking's Slovak. "Several hundred thousand people have read the last book, but you never know for certain if they are going to come and look at the new book."

PW tracked four follow-up titles: Cherry by Mary Karr (Viking), Innocence by Jane Mendelsohn (Putnam), The Binding Chair by Kathryn Harrison (Random) and Killing Time by Caleb Carr (Random). With over 500,000 copies in paperback of The Liar's Club, any book by Karr would face huge expectations. As it was, Slovak said Cherry will sell close to what The Liar's Club sold in hardcover—about 50,000—and should have a healthy paperback life of its own. And it has been five years between books.

The lag time between books played a factor for Mendelsohn's follow-up title as well. "I Was Amelia Earhart did well in hardcover in '96," said Morris. "By the time this came out, even those people who read that would not necessarily make the connection with this book. She was almost a new author again. This sold as I expected."

Kathryn Harrison might have had the opposite experience at the book counter. Coming off of The Kiss, her name might have been too well known. But even though it's hard to follow up a memoir about the romantic relationship between the author and her father, Random's Schneider said The Binding Chair will net about 25,000, which is a slight build on her pervious fiction titles. As for Caleb Carr's departure from the historical fiction that won him much acclaim with The Alienist, Killing Time disappointed readers and critics. But Schneider said his net numbers would be in the 200,000s, right in line with his past books. It's always a little dicey when a writer changes his MO.

Ask Warner. Last fall one of its top thriller writers, David Baldacci, took a break from the genre to write a more personal and sweet work, Wish You Well. "He really was compelled to write this book," said Warner's Egen. "We did consider that his readership might not follow him." Months after publication Baldacci is still personally pushing this book and, Egen said, it is selling about 80% as well as the thrillers did. The thrillers are in the 500,000-copy ballpark.

Again it comes back to the personal touch, a well-managed print run, and careful orders and reorders. Basically, publishing as usual.