What the Numbers Reveal

As we noted last week in PW, 2001 was a defining year for the book publishing business, with the bottom line in trouble due to a softer economy and further damaged following the events of September 11. How did the cash register stars--the books that publishers count on to sell in large numbers--fare over the course of the year? What were the shifts in who made the charts and how long any book and author held on to bestseller limelight?

Certain truisms continue to define the composition of the year's bestseller charts. Having the right name was still the main entree to the fiction charts, as all the veterans saw their newest works land on the lists. But the harsh reality of a shorter stay on the weekly lists plagued both veterans and newcomers. Making generalizations about nonfiction is a bit more difficult. Clearly, timing played an important role, and while the bulk of the year saw the usual self-help, celebrity, politics and American history titles do well, the last quarter's bestsellers were connected directly with September 11, including, unusually, tomes from academic presses. Many of these books on terrorism, as well as commemoratives on the World Trade Center and its heroes, sported publishing names seldom or never on the national charts--Jodere Group, Powerhouse, American Products and Rutgers and Yale Universities. Religious titles, particularly Bruce Wilkinson's The Prayer of Jabez, also experienced spectacular sales. Multnomah's three books by Wilkinson tallied 72 weeks on the nonfiction hardcover charts--that's about 9.5% of the available slots in the year.

The top five publishers that generally control the bestseller real estate--Random House, Penguin Putnam, Simon & Schuster, HarperCollins and Time Warner--continued their domination, but lost some ground. In hardcover, the five claimed a total of 79.4% of all available slots on the hardcover lists and 77.5% of the paperback charts. Both those figures are down a bit from 2000, when the same group held 83.% of all hardcover slots and 78.9% of the paperback slots. Random House Inc.'s grip has fallen steadily in the last few years. Back in 1998, when we tallied RH and BDD numbers for hardcovers, the conglomerate enjoyed a 43% share; in 1999, the figure fell to 38.9%; in 200o to 33% and in 2001 to 30%. The publisher that gained the most during that same period in hardcover is Penguin Putnam; the house went from 11.5% in 1998 to 18% in 2001. In paperback, Penguin Putnam again gained the most, going from 14.5% in 1998 to 24.3% in 2001.

Consolidation of power is also in evidence on the hardcover nonfiction and trade paperback charts. The 12 longest-running hardcovers made up 45% of all the available weekly slots. In trade, 14 books held 53% off all available slots in 2001.

The Author Lineup

With few exceptions, the fiction stars in both hardcover and paperback are the ones noted in these features each year--John Grisham, Danielle Steel, Stephen King, James Patterson and Mary Higgins Clark. There are also Oprah's book club picks. However, while these are pretty much assured of a place on the list and, more often than not, enjoy long runs, getting to #1 is no longer a given. Oprah's most recent choice, A Fine Balance by Rohinton Mistry, has yet to climb above #7 on the trade paper list. Two of the four hardcover fiction titles that clocked the most time on the charts--Cane River and The Corrections--were Oprah picks. For the latter, of course, author Jonathan Franzen benefited first by being chosen by Oprah and then by all the press he received after being dropped from the program; he was the first author of about 45 who felt his literary reputation would be weakened by the very commercial Oprah boost.

One very happy commercial author continues to beat her own record of most prolific author. In 2001, Nora Roberts placed 13 books on the mass market charts (three under her J.J. Robb nom de plume) and two hardcovers. That's more than her 2000 record of 12 mass markets and one hardcover; also, five of her mass market titles landed in the #1 slot after just a week in the stores. If you add up all her time spent on the mass market charts last year, Roberts grabbed almost 10% of all available charts.

The Numbers Game

A record number of books made it onto the charts in 2001. The year's tally is 433 books, up considerably from the last record set just a year earlier--385. Three of the four PW weekly lists set new records for number of books making a first appearance; the only one that did not was trade paper. In hardcover fiction, 127 books appeared on the weekly charts, breaking the 2000 record of 123 books. Hardcover nonfiction had 83 first-time titles, ahead of the 2000 record-breaking tally of 73. In mass market, a whopping 164 books landed on the charts, breaking the 2000 record of 137. In trade, there were 59 newcomers, more than the 52 that hit the 2000 list; the record, 60, set back in 1996 still stands.

While the good news is that more books had a chance to be national bestsellers, the bad news is that books that did make it had shorter tenures. In fiction, only four had runs of 15 weeks or more, considerably fewer than the 12 that enjoyed the long stays on the chart back in 1998. Of the 127 fiction titles that made the charts, about 70 stayed on the list for a month or less, and 28 of those for only one or two weeks. In nonfiction, too, there were fewer books with long stays than in previous years--12 in 2001 vs. 16 in 2000. And six of those 12 were holdovers from 2000 enjoying yet another year of double-digit tallies. Also, 39 of the 83 nonfiction bestsellers had runs of a month or less.

The tenure for mass markets was the shortest ever, with only two books scoring more than 15 weeks. Only seven more mass market bestsellers had double-digit runs. About two-thirds of the 2001 mass market bestsellers were on the lists for a month or less and 53 of those appeared for only one or two weeks. Trade paperbacks remain the best list for chart tenure. There were 14 books that enjoyed 15 or more weeks on the 2001 charts and two--The Four Agreements and The Red Tent--asted perfect attendance. All totaled, two-thirds of the books that landed on our weekly trade paper charts spent more than a month there.

The Race for #1

Last year, we noted the increased number of hardcover novels that made it to the top spot after a week or less in the stores. That trend continues. Of the 21 that made it to #1 during 2001, 18 did so after a week or less in the stores (all thanks to effective one-day laydowns). Fourteen of the #1 bestsellers held the spot for one or two weeks. Grisham's Skipping Christmas fared the best, with six weeks in the top position.

Only seven nonfiction hardcovers had a shot at #1, mainly because two books--The Prayer of Jabez and Who Moved My Cheese?--enjoyed runs of 21 and 15 weeks, respectively. Bill O'Reilly's The No Spin Zone took the top spot for eight weeks. Clearly, with three books racking up 85% of the prime retail space, there was little left over for the competition.

In mass market, 18 books landed at #1; 10 did so their first week out. John Grisham had the best run, with nine weeks in the coveted spot, followed by five weeks for Clive Cussler's Atlantis Found. In trade paperback, 15 books had a stay at #1, but not one of them did it in the first week of sales.

While timing and coordination of publicity, advertising and marketing is key for success for hardcover fiction and mass market titles, opportunities to build sales is much more abundant in nonfiction hardcover and trade paperback. The shorter shelf cycle for fiction is a challenge that publishers will be grappling with in 2002 and beyond. The need to sell large quantities of books in a shorter time frame is going to make efficient backroom operations essential to financial health. Look for more features in the magazine this year on how publishers are planning to meet that challenge.

Bestsellers by Corporation
How the large companies fared on PW 's 2001 charts

PW's 2001 Longest-Running Bestsellers

Ranking the Houses
How the divisions and imprints competed in 2001