The year 2002 began with the most propitious of omens. Philip Pullman's The Amber Spyglass, winner of the Whitbread Children's Book of the Year, then warded off opposition from the other Whitbread winners to take the overall Whitbread Book of the Year Award. It was a first for a children's book and something many had thought would never happen. The resulting publicity was sensational. Banner headlines in national papers proclaimed: "He writes like an angel"; "Pullman rivals Chekhov"; "One of the finest writers in Britain today."
And this was no flash in the pan. J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, in paperback for the first time in 2001, headed up the 100 Fastest Sellers of 2001--and by no mean margin. It outstripped the latest John Grisham by the best part of half-a-million copies, reaching a staggering home and export sales combined total of 1,846,736 copies--and in half the selling time. Pullman's The Amber Spyglass was on the Fastest Sellers list too, at a more modest 65, while Jacqueline Wilson scored twice with The Dare Game at 39 and Vicky Angel at 90. Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone has stood at the top of Whitaker's bestsellers' list week in and week out, with the other three titles hovering not far below. In the newly released Public Lending Right figures, which record borrowings from the public libraries, children's authors and illustrators for the very young to the newly created "crossover writers," from Helen Oxenbury and Mick Inkpen to Jacqueline Wilson (again), figure frequently.
Sales figures talk and the successes of these authors have had an impact on media attention given to even the newest children's authors. Georgia Byng, whom Macmillan is promoting as "a talented young writer who is destined for the top of the bestseller lists" with the publication of her first novel Molly Moon's Incredible Book of Hypnotism, was given a full spread in The Daily Telegraph (though the book will not be published until May); similarly, Sally Prue, equally unknown, was given a page interview in the Times in January on the publication of her first novel, Cold Tom (OUP). Publicists are working hard and achieving good results: no one wants to be left out if these newcomers might become the next Rowling, Wilson or Pullman.
Even outside the books themselves, the pattern continues. The Warner Bros. film of Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone has broken all box office records, with The Lord of the Rings (not technically a children's book, but nowadays always claimed as such) not far behind. Every film and TV producer in the country is after a great children's book, and film rights are apparently being snapped up by Hollywood almost before publication.
A New Preeminence
In all lists and by any measure--except unit price, that therefore adversely affects gross profits--children's books are in a prime position. And it's not one which many would have predicted even five years ago, when children's books were bogging themselves down in utilitarianism--described and defined more by what they could "do" for their readers than by the quality of their stories or how they were told.
So surely 2002 will be a bumper year for British children's publishing?
Surprisingly, not everyone thinks so, and underlying the success and the hype there are worries about the strength of the market to maintain the full range and volume of children's books. Certainly, Rowling, Pullman, Wilson and the unusual success of two less obviously popular titles--Kevin Crossley-Holland's The Seeing Stone (Orion), a retelling of the Arthurian stories that has sold into over 20 countries, and Louis Sachar's Newbery Prize-winning Holes (Bloomsbury), which took Britain by storm--have increased the profile and success of children's fiction and inspired confidence in it among all publishers and booksellers. But the wider publishing profile is still uneasy, and no one seems to think that this year is going to be a breeze.
Big, market-led blockbusters are relatively new to children's books, and they do not fit into the traditional sales pattern of slow build followed by a far longer sales and shelf life than most adult novels. Will overnight newcomers such as Eoin Colfer's Artemis Fowl (Puffin), which has sold 150,000 copies in hardcover in the U.K., another 250,000 copies in the U.S., last? Can the vastly increased advances such as "the record sum paid for a children's book" handed out by Penguin Putnam for world rights to Michael Hoeye's Time Stops for No Mouse, or the joint purchase by Macmillan adult and children's divisions of Across the Nightingale Floor, the first in a magical/mythical trilogy which was bought for "a substantial six-figure sum" and which is designed to sell across all markets, ever be recouped? Does the newly invented "crossover market" really exist? And, if it doesn't, how big is the children's market?
The excitement generated by the big books is contagious and has certainly raised hopes and expectations for 2002 and beyond, but everyone knows these are the exceptional few--which is why Mary Tapissier, managing director of Hodder Children's Books, said: "I would refrain from being bullish about this year. I can't see that it will be better than last year, in spite of knowing that there are some wonderful books out there. In the end, it's all down to the High Street. Pressures from the big chains are squeezing margins. We need to make sure that core stocks are retained." Tapissier's worry is that the slimmed stock in bookshops cuts out authors who take time to get established, damaging both their and their editors' apprenticeship years.
Tapissier is also nervous about relying on the fiction boom alone. She sees the strength of Hodder Children's Books resting in its spread, including the acquisition of Wayland Publishing, which gives it a strong place in the institutional market. Children's books have always relied heavily on institutional sales; many are still suffering in the aftermath of a bumper year, 1999, when the government provided money for schools to spend specifically on books. Without such contributions, the institutional market is volatile and, despite their newfound celebrity status, sales of children's books suffered dramatically as schools spent their money elsewhere.
The Fiction Boom
Judith Elliott, publisher at Orion Children's Books, with an annual list of 50-60 titles, has seen cycles before and is loath to be drawn on whether things are better or worse. "It's tough--and it always has been," she said. "We have to work frightfully hard for every sale." She is, however, optimistic about 2002. "We have everything to look forward to as fiction continues to boom." (Just at press time, Elliott announced her decision to step down from her position at the end of the year.)
Almost everyone is enjoying the fiction bonanza and it has led to a refreshing return to "one-off" novels, away from the 1990s trend to put everything into a series in order to attract sales. Everyone now believes that good novels can sell on their own qualities--so long as they are backed by strong marketing.
Bloomsbury, which some skeptically thought depended too much on J.K. Rowling, has shown itself as a fiction publisher of high quality whose books are excellently marketed. Last year's success with Celia Rees's Witch Child, Benjamin Zephaniah's Refugee Boy and Malachy Doyle's Georgie proved their depth, and these are followed this year by Sorceress, Rees's sequel to Witch Child, Natalie Babbitt's classic Tuck Everlasting and Sharon Creech's Ruby Holler.
Sarah Odedina, editorial director of Bloomsbury Children's Books, is committed to continuing the company's policy of promoting good quality fiction in world markets, and her recent promotion to Bloomsbury's executive board reflects the value of the children's list to the firm. "We haven't been paying enormous advances. Instead, we've been working with our existing authors as well as building new ones. If it's a well-written book it will work in lots of markets. We can sell these authors and are prepared to spend a lot on marketing to promote them."
Odedina is also convinced that the booksellers, too, recognize the importance of a wide range of titles. "It may be harder to get the smaller books into the shops, but children's booksellers in both the independents and the chains know that children are a diverse group of readers and they want to cater for them all," she said.
Collins Children's Books, too, published excellent fiction throughout 2001, and began this year by issuing debut author Nicky Singer's Feather Boy, which has been enthusiastically received. Later in the year Collins will launch another new writer, Garth Nix, whose works of fantasy have been strong sellers in the U.S. Collins had an excellent year for fiction last year launching Flamingo, a new paperback teenage list but, like Odedina, publishing director Gillie Russell is wary of the dangers of large advances on future publishing programs. "The huge advances now being demanded by some agents and authors will lead to a significant downturn in the number of books published unless we are very careful and that, in the end, will not benefit any of us--children's publishers, authors or agents. We want to encourage new authors and continue to aim at turning the culturally important into the commercially successful."
Fiona Kenshole, publishing director of children's books at Oxford University Press, believes passionately in finding new authors and developing existing ones and, like others, she is worried by the overmarketing of some titles, and particularly by the dominance such marketing can give the big publishers. "Basically, the big publishers have reached saturation," she said. "But middle-size, small and independent publishers are providing author care and focused marketing, which is paying off. They are also able to take risks, which means that a lot of the interesting publishing can be done in these places."
Certainly, small, editorial-led lists can publish differently, as David Fickling's imprint, first as part of Scholastic and now newly under the Transworld/Random House group, has shown. New Fickling titles for 2002 include Robin McKinley's Spindle's End and Linda Newbery's The Shell House. These, like previous Fickling titles such as AdeleGeras's Troy, Jan Mark's Eclipse of the Century and, most notably, Philip Pullman's Northern Lights trilogy, are long novels, meticulously edited and handsomely published.
The merger of Transworld Children's Books and Random House Children's Books, incidentally, has led to a powerful force which combines the relatively new, small and prize-winning Transworld list, home to authors and illustrators such as Jacqueline Wilson, Philip Pullman (his younger fiction), Helen Cooper and Ted Dewan with the formidable size and reputation of the Random House authors and illustrators, including Shirley Hughes, Quentin Blake, Babette Cole, Kate Thompson and Adèle Geras, as well as the distinguished classics of Arthur Ransome and Erich Kästner. Neither company has, as yet, had an obviously market-led success but both have a reputation for publishing first-class books, and Random House Children's Books, as the new company is called, will certainly play a leading role in the future.
Whoever the author, whether established or new, or whoever the publisher, whether small, medium or large, everyone is marketing hard. The work of publicity departments has changed beyond recognition. Where once it was a question of sending out review copies, waiting months for a review and occasionally throwing a party, almost every book that is going to make it is now surrounded by a vigorous campaign. Launches become ever more exotic--Puffin has just announced a top-secret Fowl Day on March 8 to celebrate Eoin Colfer's second title about his eponymous hero. In-house teams are not enough, and many are now also employing a growing army of freelance publicists who can generate attention for their authors.
Authors, too, are getting in on the act. They now promote themselves tirelessly through school and library visits and more glamorously at the ever-increasing number of literary conferences. And again, the new status of children's writers helps considerably: adult and children's writers are now being programmed to appear together, allowing children's writers to reach adults as well as children. All are clear that 2002 will see more--and yet more--of the same unless, or until, the bubble bursts.
Changes Among the Players
All the activity around children's books and the excitement they are generating, even if the sales are not across the board, is taking place against a background of major change to the publishing scene. This year started with Francesca Dow taking up her post as the new head of Puffin. It is a big step for Dow, who has made her reputation with the small and personally shaped Orchard list, but one which she--and many others--are confident she can handle. Dow's own reputation as a picture book editor is reflected in the Orchard list's stars such as Jane Ray, Jane Simmons and Lauren Child. Internal reorganization at Penguin means that Dow reports directly to managing director Helen Fraser. Replacing Dow as publishing director at Orchard will be Anne-Janine Murtagh, who will be moving from her post as publishing director of Kingfisher Books at the end of her maternity leave in July.
At HarperCollins, the children's division has recently been detached from the educational division and will instead be part of HarperCollins General Books. Amanda Ridout, the new managing director at HarperCollins, is looking for a children's publisher who "is not only a great publisher, but also a first-class business person." From a sales and marketing background herself, Ridout is clear that children's books need to capitalize on their new market position.
This year also began with the news that Judith Elliott will be stepping down from Orion at the end of the year, though she will continue to work with some of her authors. Elliott launched the Orion list 10 years ago and during that time has built up a distinguished list of fiction and picture books with authors such as Kevin Crossley-Holland, Jostein Gaarder and illustrators including Sally Gardner, Richard Brassey and Peter Malone. Elliott's mark is still to be seen in many other places, too, most notably Orchard, which she also launched and where she trained Francesca Dow for her succession.
The media hype of fiction has not spread to picture books, nor has the sales success. If fiction is flourishing, hardcover picture books are still proving hard to sell. Prices have been held down over the past two years, many still retailing at only £9.99, which is very little compared with other forms of children's entertainment such as games, toys or videos. But even so, trade sales are hard to come by. Lacking impetus from the "pester-power" of the age-six-and-overs, picture books remain largely the preserve of the institutional market. Sales have also been adversely affected by the decline of the book club market, which has lost out to other sectors, including supermarkets and the Internet.
Instead of relying on the home market, publishers are depending on the continuing strong co-edition sales to keep picture book lists afloat. Klaus Flugge, whose Andersen Press list has been the celebrated home of many successful illustrators such as Michael Foreman, David McKee and Tony Ross, is confident that quality picture books will continue. "We sell foreign rights to all our picture books," Flugge said. "Look at David McKee's Elmer. It has been translated into 33 languages."
But Elliott agreed that picture books often lose out at home: "Picture books are still not noticed enough in reviews or shops, and we are all suffering from our own sin of overproduction. It's still hard to find good stories, so we are overdependent on striking artwork. There's too much emphasis on the 'character' and not enough on the story."
And characters from picture books have begun to be merchandized--often before the book has become established. At Orion, Elliott is publishing James Mayhew's Miranda the Explorer, which she insisted, "actually has story with lots of adventure."
Others, too, are backing picture books despite the slow trade sales, with the result that 2002 includes some glorious titles. After a rather bumpy period of transition away from the indulgent days of unqualified love, as celebrated most successfully in Sam McBratney and Anita Jeram's Guess How Much I Love You? (Walker Books) and by many others, too, there is a new confidence in picture books led by illustrators such as Lauren Child, whose quirky illustrations and text in Clarice Bean, That's Me (Orchard) show how picture books--like fiction--can cross over and appeal to adults, too.
But particular worries, and the knowledge that selling children's books is never as easy as might be hoped, cannot dampen the general euphoria that all those working in children's books are feeling. There is a new energy. How it will be translated either editorially or in terms of marketing is as yet unclear. Inevitably, "look-alike" publishing abounds: just as every publisher was once (and still is) looking for the next Harry Potter, now it is the next Philip Pullman which brings with it the prospect of many longer and more ambitious novels that may become the next cross-overs. This is exciting for any child who is a serious reader, as it has raised expectations of what children can read and enjoy.
However, in the search for extra sales from adult purchasers, there is the danger of authors and publishers forgetting the original audience for whom these great stories (both Harry Potter and the Northern Lights saga) were written. There is a danger, too, that the huge successes of the few may make the equally important though less glamorous and profitable titles seem comparatively worthless, both to their authors and their publishers.
But experienced publishers know that running in behind a current favorite never works for long, and that many authors who win the sobriquet "the next..." or "just like..." fall by the wayside. The next big book will almost certainly come from an unexpected quarter.
Only one thing is certain--it will be heavily marketed.
