The major growth areas in publishing in 2005 will be the elhi and religious book segments, according to the annual projections from the Book Industry Study Group. Overall, BISG projects that total sales in the industry will increase 5.3%, to $30 billion.
Sales in the elhi segment, boosted by a 70% increase in adoption funding, are expected to increase 15% this year, to $4.66 billion. The religion segment, which had an 11% increase in sales in 2004, is forecast to post a sales gain of 9% this year. The spike in religious sales that began in 2003 "is not a bubble," said Fordham University professor Al Greco, who prepared the BISG forecast.
The children's segment is pegged to grow at a 4.8% increase this year, a conservative prediction given the boost the segment will receive from Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. Sales in adult trade are forecast to rise 2.9%, driven by stronger sales of fiction, Greco said.
The trend of little growth in unit sales, especially in the trade segment, is not expected to produce a radical change this year. Despite a 6% increase predicted for unit sales in the children's hardcover segment, overall unit gains for trade publishing are forecast at only 1.4%.
Projected Book Sales, 2005
(in millions)
| Segment | 2004 | 2005 | % CHANGE | |
| Trade | $6,789.5 | $7,022.8 | 3.4% | |
| Adult | 5,020.3 | 5,167.8 | 2.9 | |
| Children | 1,769.2 | 1,855.0 | 4.8 | |
| Mass market paperback | 1,713.9 | 1,782.3 | 4.0 | |
| Book clubs | 1,033.9 | 1,030.8 | -0.3 | |
| Mail order | 393.6 | 385.6 | -2.0 | |
| Religion | 1,946.3 | 2,121.5 | 9.0 | |
| Bible | 664.3 | 670.9 | 1.0 | |
| Other | 1,282.0 | 1,450.6 | 13.2 | |
| Professional | 5,312.1 | 5,449.6 | 2.6 | |
| University press | 437.8 | 450.6 | 2.9 | |
| Elhi | 4,051.7 | 4,659.0 | 15.0 | |
| College | 3,899.1 | 3,948.1 | 10.1 | |
| Standardized tests | 2,133.1 | 2,348.8 | 1.9 | |
| Subscription reference | 873.0 | 889.7 | 1.3 | |
| Total | 28,584.0 | 30,008.8 | 5.3 | |
