Tracking the Transition: Bookstats

Last Tuesday's release by the Association of American Publishers and Book Industry Study Group of BookStats provides the most comprehensive information yet to gauge how technology is changing the sales patterns and trends of the book publishing industry. With industrywide projections based on sales reported from 1,963 companies that had a combined revenue of $15.3 billion, BookStats found that, contrary to widespread belief, the publishing industry grew in both 2009 and 2010, aided by $1.6 billion in sales from e-books. Total estimated revenue for all publishers rose 3.1% in 2010, to $27.9 billion, following a 2.5% increase in 2009. E-book sales across all publishing categories rose 29.4% in 2009 and 38.9% in 2010, and accounted for 5.8% of total industry revenue in 2010.

E-books' impact has been greatest in the trade segment, and BookStats estimates that sales of text-only e-books rose 201.0% in 2010, to $863.7 million. BookStats also confirms what other reports (including AAP's own monthly sales estimates) have indicated—falling sales in the major trade print segments. Hardcover sales, after rising in 2009, fell 6.6% in 2010, the same pattern shown by trade paperback. The trend has been all downhill for mass market paperback, with sales in the segment down 13.8% in the 2008–2010 period. Sales of physical audiobooks declined in 2009 and 2010, while sales of audio downloads increased in both years, but not by enough to completely offset the decline in CDs and other physical formats. Publishers' newest products—apps and e-books bundled with print books—have gained little traction so far, with each product line generating less than $1 million in sales.

Overall, trade unit sales rose 2.3% in 2010 (4.5% in the 2008–2010 period), driven by a 215.5% increase in e-book sales.

The popularity of e-books has ushered in a significant change in where trade books are bought. BookStats data show what other reports have found—retail stores losing ground to online e-tailers in the trade segment. Between 2008 and 2010, retailers' share of the book market fell to 40.8% from 42.3%, while online sales rose to 14.3% from 8.0%. Within the retail segment, the market share of bookstore chains fell by two percentage points as sales declined 14.4%, while independents' share of the market slipped to 4.3% on a 3.7% drop in sales.

While online e-tailer's sales rose 88.8% between 2008 and 2010, it was actually mass merchandisers that had the strongest gains, with sales jumping 553.2%, to $218.5 million, an encouraging development for trade publishers, who hope that some of the loss of business at Borders will be picked up by nonbookstore outlets.

The data also reflect more direct buying by outlets as sales to jobbers and wholesalers fell 8.9% in the two-year period in the trade segment, though the channel still represented 30.1% of sales in 2010. Direct buying by institutions such as libraries and government agencies was up 6.3% in 2010 after falling in 2009.

To help publishers of different sizes make more meaningful comparisons, BookStats provides a breakdown of total sales by eight revenue ranges for all publishers. The top-tier publishers lost a bit of market share between 2008 and 2010, but the largest houses still accounted for 49.2% of revenue compared to 50.3% in 2008. The strongest gains in the period were turned in by mid-size publishers, with their share of sales increasing to 14.2% last year from 13.3% in 2008.

Industry Sales 2008–2010 (in millions)

Trade Sales by Format, 2008–2010 (in millions)

Trade Sales by Channel, 2008–2010 (in millions)

Source: Bookstats