In a presentation at the London Book Fair, Circana BookScan U.S. book analyst Brenna Connor had generally comforting words for the publishing community. After two years of declines, BookScan reported that unit sales in 2024 rose by 1%—and Connor noted that some of the factors that led to that increase remain in place.
At the top of the list is BookTok. Sales driven by the social media platform jumped 20% last year over 2023, reaching about 60 million units sold. Despite the talk of TikTok possibly being banned in the U.S., Connor believes BookTok, or another social media platform, will continue to be a sales driver. “If BookTok is permanently banned, I don't think adult fiction sales will fall off a cliff,” Connor said. “I think that this engaged group of readers that continues to grow will continue to buy books, will continue to connect over books, and will seek bookish content on other channels outside of TikTok.”
On the adult nonfiction front, sales of religion books—particularly of Bibles—was a bright spot in 2024, and Connor sees no indication that sales in the category will decline this year. Bible unit sales rose 22% last year, reaching a record high for BookScan of 17 million units. Bible sales have been on an upward trend since 2015, when units sold were only 5 million, and the pace of growth has increased since 2020.
Connor said that BookScan data supports a story in the Wall Street Journal that the growth in Bible sales is being fueled by new buyers as well as new editions, noting that Bible frontlist editions are selling three times faster than backlist Bibles. Connor also attributed the overall increase in sales of religion books to consumers' search for comfort and hope in a time of high anxiety, a trend religion publishers have pointed out to PW. In addition to higher Bible sales, Connor noted that book sales about Christian living rose 2.9% last year, the highest increase among all adult nonfiction segments in 2024. And with a recent Pew study finding that the long slide of Americans saying that they had no particular religious affiliation has stopped, sales of religion books should have another good year, she said.
The children's and young adult categories had a mixed 2024, with nonfiction sales up and fiction down. Nonfiction sales were led by sales of educational materials and activity books, and Connor said that she expects another solid year for that segment. She sees interest in religion books by adults carrying over to the children’s market where sales of Bible study books have done well.
Another strong segment has been holiday books, which outperformed the overall children’s market the last few years, Connor said. While sales around major holidays such as Christmas, Halloween, and Easter have always been strong, Connor said that sales tied to secondary holiday occasions like Mother's Day, Father's Day, and Thanksgiving are also growing. “I think this points to the idea that more families are incorporating books into their gifting traditions, and I expect that can to continue,” Connor said, adding that sales of Valentine's Day books were up by double digits.
Focusing on what has been working best in children’s fiction, Connor pointed to titles that are tied to four broad areas—family, adventure, mythical creatures, and fantasy.
Connor is looking for the children’s market to return to growth mode in 2025, with nonfiction continuing to outperform fiction. She partly based that predication on results in the fourth quarter of 2024, where sales of children’s books rose over the prior year.
Her expectation for the entire book market in the first half of the year was cautiously optimistic, forecasting that the uncertainty in both the economy and politics could potentially help book sales. As fears about the economy grow, consumers will likely cut back on buying big-ticket items and focus more on categories that have a high perceived value at a lower price, such as books. “We know from historical data that these types of items do well during economic uncertainty,” Connor said. If that is the case, she expects that adult fiction titles tied to themes of escapism will continue to do well and also expects “themes coming from the darker side of things” to emerge, such as dystopian horror and Gothic romance. She also pointed to a bigger picture factor: “this idea of bibliotherapy, or using literature to help improve your overall health or wellbeing, will strengthen sales in the adult fiction market as well.”
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